715
FXUS63 KLMK 221147
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
647 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MILDER TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AROUND CHRISTMAS, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
* MILD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH A SERIES OF REINFORCING
COLD FRONTS. THERE IS LOW, BUT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THAT COULD BRING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING, WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF LOWER STRATUS NOTED FROM THE OZARKS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF STATES. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY
COLD IN THE 20S AND 30S THIS MORNING, MILDER AIR WILL QUICKLY RETURN
TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING FROM EASTERLY THIS
MORNING TO SOUTHERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH READINGS
CLOSER TO 50 THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO AND CLOSER TO 60 THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO.
IN ADDITION TO DRAWING WARMER AIR UP FROM THE GULF, S/SW FLOW
BETWEEN THE SFC AND 800 MB WILL ALSO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING FROM AROUND 0.3" TO 0.9-1.0" OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WITH
850 MB FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 40-45 KT THIS EVENING, WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY
MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AS THIS LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL SUPPORT MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE H85 JET SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WITH MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS
ONLY RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WHILE NEAR-SFC STABILITY SHOULD KEEP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, 8-15 MPH
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THANKS TO THIS MILD BREEZE AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL MUCH TONIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME, A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NW, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
BEFORE MAKING IT THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
STUBBORN MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS
OVERHEAD. WHILE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
LLVL MOISTURE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY. REGARDLESS, ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH DOES FALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WON'T BE
PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY ON TUESDAY AS AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT A SUPPRESSED DIURNAL RANGE, KEEPING
HIGHS DOWN. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, NBM GUIDANCE GETS MUCH OF THE AREA
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE IS A
FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE UPPER AND LOWER TAILS OF THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON TUESDAY, BUT
IT SHOULD STILL END UP A BIT MILDER ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO
MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MAY TRY TO NUDGE THE SFC FRONT TOWARD THE KY/TN BORDER,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER TOWARD OUR
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY COUNTIES. IF WE DID CLEAR OUT, IT WOULD
BE A FAIRLY GOOD SETUP FOR FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS PRETTY LOW
RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS, THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY STRONG NORTH-SOUTH
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD
ALSO BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THESE SHOULDN'T BE TOO IMPACTFUL.
CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
STARTS TO LIFT THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION TO THE NORTH.
HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT PROGRESSES DURING THE DAY WILL IMPACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST FEATURING HIGHS NEAR 60
NORTH OF I-64 AND IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN CHRISTMAS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PROGRESSIVELY DIG INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL US. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACTLY HOW MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE, AS A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT FARTHER TO THE NE OF THE AREA,
MAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 MORE LIKELY. THIS
TIME FRAME ALSO SHOULDN'T BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, AS PRECIP CHANCES
WILL EBB AND FLOW AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS BY THE REGION.
THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
RECORD WARM VALUES, AS SUPPRESSED DIURNAL RANGES IN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEXT WEEKEND...
WHILE MOST OF THE SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD FEATURE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND LIMITED IMPACTS, THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL IN
A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WHICH WILL BE FAIRLY STATIC ALONG THE
WEST COAST THIS WEEK WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL ATTEMPT
TO PHASE WITH A POLAR STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA. IF THIS
PHASING IS SUCCESSFUL, AS IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE ECMWF/EPS
SOLUTIONS, THIS COULD BRING AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH
EXTENDED RANGE PROGS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, THERE WOULD BE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AHEAD OF COLD FROPA. IF THE TWO UPPER WAVES DON'T PHASE, AS
IS MORE TYPICAL IN THE GFS/GEFS, THEN A MORE MUTED, WEAKER SYSTEM
WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE AI/ML
SEVERE CONVECTION GUIDANCE HASN'T YET CONVERGED ON TOO CONCERNING OF
A SOLUTION, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH THE STRONGER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS FAVORING AT
LEAST A BRIEF PATTERN REVERSAL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DRIER WEATHER IS ALSO FAVORED EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS STILL PRETTY LOW THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE EAST
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY, BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THIS
EVENING. LOW VFR/MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF
MVFR CIGS, WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND OR AFTER 0Z,
ESPECIALLY AT SDF/LEX/RGA. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS CIGS DROPS, THOUGH VFR VIS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT, AND LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS A 45 KT LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD. A FEW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT LEX AND RGA.
TUESDAY MORNING, CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO LOW MVFR AND
POSSIBLY HIGH IFR RANGE. AT THE SAME TIME, PATCHY MIST AND DRIZZLE
COULD LEAD TO REDUCED VIS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG
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