441
FXUS63 KLMK 110526
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1226 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HIGHER SNOW BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
* COLD AND BLUSTERY TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH MAKING IT FEEL LIKE IT IS IN THE 20S.
* DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 857 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS ROTATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING,
AND CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN ARE CURRENTLY BENEATH A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST, AND THE
BLUEGRASS AND LAKE CUMBERLAND REGIONS WILL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXTEND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
IL/MO. HOWEVER, A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STRETCHES ALONG
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL IL/MO. THAT COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH/VORT MAX WILL BRIEFLY
ENHANCE MOISTURE DEPTH AND LIFT AS THE SATURATED PORTION OF THE
COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS INTO THE DGZ THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. THE
MOISTURE ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS BOTH NARROW
(HORIZONTALLY) AND SHALLOW, SO ANY SNOW BETWEEN 06-11Z SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND FAIRLY LIGHT IN NATURE. FORCING ISN'T ALL THAT STRONG
EITHER. HOWEVER, BOTH MOISTURE DEPTH AND LIFT INCREASE BENEATH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH 11-17Z SUNDAY. THE FAVORED AREA REMAINS SOUTHERN
INDIANA SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL KY AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
COULD SEE A FEW MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS EVOLVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SFC TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING BY THIS TIME, SO I THINK WE COULD HAVE AT
LEAST ONE OR TWO NARROW SWATHS OF SNOW THAT BRIEFLY COAT THE ROADS
AND CAUSE MINOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. LUCKILY, IT'S SUNDAY MORNING AND
THESE WINTRY IMPACTS WILL BE QUITE LOCALIZED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE,
CERTAINLY PLAN ON A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH WIND CHILLS STUCK IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 432 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
BETWEEN I-65 AND I-75. AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD,
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT IN BEHIND AND WE WILL START TO DRY
OUT AND EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW WORKS
IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. INITIALLY,
THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BUT QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. SFC TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES WILL BE AROUND THE MID 30S BUT EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY TO
NEAR 30 OR UPPER 20S BY DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR A QUICK BURST
OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, NORTH CENTRAL KY INTO THE
BLUEGRASS. IMPACTS REMAIN MINIMAL AS GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STILL BE TOO WARM FROM THE MILD TEMPERATURES THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. NO MORE THAN A DUSTING ON ELEVATED OR GRASSY SURFACES IS
EXPECTED. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND A QUICK BURST OF SNOW COULD CREATE LOW
VISIBILITY.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT AND SWING THROUGH JUST
AROUND DAYBREAK WITH GUSTY WINDS, COLD TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
INDICATE WE COULD SEE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 IN THE
MORNING, WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHILE SNOW SQUALLS ARE
NOT EXPECTED, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 20, A QUICK
BURST OF SNOW FROM A SHOWER COULD STILL CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES
IF TRAVELING. CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT DURING THE DAY AND WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, FACTOR IN THE
GUSTY WINDS AND IT WILL BE A COLD BLUSTERY DAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 432 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR OUT TOMORROW EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
WORKS INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
OHIO AND TN VALLEYS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW EVENING WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 20S BY
MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN DRY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
GETTING WARMER BY TUESDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT WITH A
LITTLE RIDGING TO INCREASE HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. SFC HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND ALLOW FOR SOME WAA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 40S ON MONDAY AND LOW/MID 50S BY TUESDAY. WILL ALSO SEE
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OUT THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, BRINGING A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH SINKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, IT WILL
INITIALLY HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE, THANKS IN PART TO BLOCKING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCE WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM,
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS AS WELL AS IF AND WHEN THE SYSTEM
PHASES INTO A SFC LOW OVER VA AND THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS WOULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE KIND OF PRECIPITATION WE
WOULD SEE AND WHEN. FOR NOW THINK WE SEE MAINLY RAIN WITH A
TRANSITION OVER TO WINTRY MIX OR SNOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
WHAT IS MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DURING
THE MID- AND LATE-WEEK PERIOD AS TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS FEATURE A SECONDARY TROUGH BRINGING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH
COULD BRING A SECOND CHANCE FOR LIGHT, POSSIBLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. ALL IN ALL, WHILE THE MID-TO-LATE WEEK PERIOD SHOULD
BE ACTIVE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
EXPECT SCT-BKN LOWER CLOUDS (MOSTLY VFR) TO RETURN FROM THE NW
BETWEEN 06-12Z THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEF
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NE OF A LINE FROM SDF TO RGA. WE WILL SEE
ONE THINNER LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE
AND THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE
MORNING. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO IFR IN MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER WNW BEHIND THE SECONDARY FROPA AND
BECOME GUSTY, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS OR SO. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...SRW
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