242
FXUS63 KLMK 111613
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1113 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COLD AND BLUSTERY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH MAKING IT FEEL LIKE IT IS IN THE 20S.
* DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1113 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING IS
PUSHING EASTWARD. WHILE THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS DIMINISHING AS IT
WORKS OUT OF THE CWA, A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
MY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR
SUNSHINE. IT WILL REMAIN COLD, HIGHS WILL GO FROM THE 20S THIS
MORNING INTO THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE
GUSTY CREATING VERY CHILLY AND BLUSTERY WIND CHILL VALUES. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGED EXPECTED TO THE
GRIDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND THERE IS A
THIN BAND OF MIXED PRECIP AHEAD OF IT. THIS FRONT AND PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
THIS FRONT PASSES, TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE BELOW FREEZING AS
STRONG CAA BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A PAUSE IN PRECIP
AROUND 12Z BEFORE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND MORE MOISTURE IN THE DGZ
PUSHES IN. AMPLE LIFT FROM TROUGHING, STRONG CVA, AND PRESENT
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NW AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETER IS QUITE HIGH, GIVEN SOME EPV MOVING INTO THE
REGION. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS, WE WILL SEE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
GIVEN THIS SET UP, COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS BECOME HEAVY, WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID-TO-UPPER 20S AT THIS TIME, AND ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY HOVER
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. LOOKING AT THE MRMS PROBABILITY FOR SUB
FREEZING ROAD TEMPERATURES, WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE VALUES
INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. WE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND BRIDGES. THOUGH, IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS,
WE WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ON ALL SURFACES. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30MPH AT TIMES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME IMPACT TO SUNDAY MORNING TRAVEL. USE
CAUTION IF YOU ARE OUT DRIVING THIS MORNING.
THERE IS AN SPS OUT FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A SHORT-
FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT AS FOR
THIS FORECAST, WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON, SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CEASE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST, WHICH WILL STEADILY REDUCE WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT, WILL BRING EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MORNING
IN THE LOW-TO-MID 20S AND SOME COOLER SPOTS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
BY LATE MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SE AND BROADEN OVER
THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL BRING BETTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WAA INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S AND TUESDAY INTO THE MID 50S. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A 40-
45KT LLJ WILL MOVE OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. AMPLE
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO TRANSFER TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY NIGHT, A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, BRINGING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT
OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE BROADER
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL NOT SWING THROUGH
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING STRONG CAA
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP TO TRANSITION RAIN TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH
IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
LATE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION RESTORING DRIER
CONDITIONS. NORTHWESTERLY TURNING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SENDING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO IFR IN MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 25KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY THE AFTERNOON
SKIES WILL THIN AND CLEAR, REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
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