604
FXUS63 KLMK 130752
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
252 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MILDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
BRINGING RAIN INITIALLY. WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES. THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
PRETTY QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS HOUR WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BENEATH A FEW UPPER CLOUDS. WE'LL START THE
MORNING OFF WITH SOME CHILLY LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
FOR MOST, HOWEVER EXPECTING A BRIEF MILDER TREND TODAY. THIS WILL BE
OUR LAST REAL SHOT AT SOME MILD TEMPS BEFORE WE RETURN TO A WINTER
LIKE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WE'LL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A SUB 990 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE
CONUS TODAY. THIS SETS UP A PRETTY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A NOTABLE 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET SITUATED AT
H85. LUCKILY, WE WON'T MIX THAT DEEP TODAY, AND IN FACT, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REALLY ONLY SHOW US MIXING TO AROUND 925 MB OR SO. STILL,
EXPECTING 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS LAYER, AND WE'LL GET A GOOD BIT OF
THAT MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF THIS
MOMENTUM WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE, WHICH SHOULD YIELD PRETTY
WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. PERHAPS A FEW STRONGER
GUSTS UP AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS ACROSS OUR
NE CWA, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY VALUES THAT HIGH TO BE
WIDESPREAD. WILL CONSIDER A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR TODAY.
THE GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ALSO HELP BRING IN SOME MILDER TEMPS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST. WE'LL HAVE SOME
UPPER SKY COVER, BUT OVERALL DON'T EXPECT THIS TO HURT "HEATING" TOO
MUCH FOR THE DAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WHERE SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD. THE END RESULT WILL BE LIGHT RAIN
BLOSSOMING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. LOOKING
FOR MOST AREAS TO MEASURE SOME LIGHT QPF VALUES, ESPECIALLY OHIO
RIVER SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE AT A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR MOST SPOTS. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BOWLING GREEN TO LEXINGTON, KY LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THE
HIGHEST TOTALS AROUND A QUARTER INCH, WILL PROBABILITIES OF AMOUNTS
THAT HIGH DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND SOUTHERN
INDIANA. THE COLDER AIR WON'T COMING CRASHING IN UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY, SO DO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO STAY ALL LIQUID
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY EVENING...
AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND REINFORCE
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR, ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLD WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY
IGNORE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF BOUTS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW.
WEDNESDAY MORNING STARTS OFF WITH LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST
CWA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY END NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH DRIER
BUT COOLER AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
STEADY COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 40S
BEFORE FALLING OFF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THE NIGHT, THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, FALLING SURFACE TEMPS, AND LINGERING 1000-850 MB MOISTURE
COMBINE. CAN'T RULE OUT A DUSTING IN SOME SPOTS MAINLY EAST OF I-65
BY THURSDAY AM. TEMPS FALL PRETTY HARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S, SO PERHAPS A FEW SLICK SPOTS BY THURSDAY
AM. THURSDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE OF NOTE WITH MINIMUM
VALUES LOOKING TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
DESPITE THE LARGE PARENT TROUGH STILL IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY, WE'LL
ACTUALLY GET SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT, SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
EARLY FRIDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MORE
SHALLOW MOISTURE, BUT COLD LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS. ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS GUSTY SNOW
SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET AT TIMES EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN A BRIEF WARM UP OCCURS WITH WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW. AFTER MORNING LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S ON FRIDAY, WE'LL TRY TO BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS
TAKES HOLD FOR SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE SATURDAY EVENING AS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE PARENT TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ONE LAST ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT IT
WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FINAL
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW AND
MID TEENS WITH WIND MINIMUM CHILLS RANGING IN THE 0 TO 10 ABOVE
RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...
COLD, BUT DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S AND LOW 30S EACH DAY. PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, SO
WIND CHILLS REMAIN PRETTY LOW EACH MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH WAVES OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. SSW WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY
AFTER 15Z. PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-
LEVEL CEILINGS WILL THICKEN AND STEADILY LOWER AROUND 00Z WED AND
BEYOND. GUSTS SLACKEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS, HOWEVER INCREASING SKY
COVER AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
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