349
FXUS63 KLMK 140547
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1247 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MILD TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. A FEW
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
* THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING RAIN INITIALLY. COLD AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND MAY RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT COATINGS OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS.
* ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BRINING SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WERE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S. SOME
UPPER 50S WERE NOTED OUT WEST OF I-165. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE CORE OF THE 850H JET IS PASSING JUST
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WITH ADEQUATE MIXING, WE'RE NOT
GOING TO MIX ALL THE WAY TO 850 MB, BUT MAYBE 950-925 MB. 13/12Z
BUFKIT FORECAST STILL CALL FOR ABOUT 75-80% TRANSFER FROM
THE TOP OF THE PBL. THIS STILL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION. KY MESONET DATA SHOWS PEAK WIND GUSTS
SO FAR AROUND 30-35 MPH IN THE BLUEGRASS. CLOUD COVER WILL RELAX A
BIT AND THERE IS STILL A WINDOW WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH AT TIMES. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET
AS TURBULENT MIXING DIMINISHES AND THE 850 JET MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION.
FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST INTO
QUEBEC WITH A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD OUR
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A PRETTY DECENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEHIND IT AND THIS FEATURE WILL DROP INTO THE MIDWEST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE, MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER
40S.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER AROUND
12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO BE IN
PROGRESS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY (MAINLY ACROSS KENTUCKY). THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE APPROACHING THE OHIO
RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO TN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR SURGING FASTER THROUGH KY. THE COLD
SHOULD CATCH THE BACK END OF THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN KY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVERLAP HERE WHERE SOME LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW COULD OCCUR IN OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. IN THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME, MOISTURE WILL STREAM OFF THE GREAT LAKES WHICH AND
WE MAY HAVE A FEW LAKE PLUMES THAT EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.
THE WIND FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON, THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO
MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW AND AIM THE LAKE BANDS MORE TOWARD EAST-
CENTRAL IN AND SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR NORTHEASTERN KY. SOME CLEARING
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KY AND MAY GET AS FAR EAST AS THE I-65
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL WATER FROM THE
PREVIOUS RAINFALL MAY FREEZE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED SLICK
SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF
I-65.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
THURSDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
WE'LL ACTUALLY GET INTO SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. SOUTHERN
KY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY DAWN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 15-20 DEGREE
RANGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SMALLER LOBES OF VORTICITY
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE
HERE, BUT A FETCH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THE
MORNING WAVE ROTATES THROUGH, SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND IF WE CAN GET SOME SUN, TEMPS WILL ATTEMPT TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. IF MORE SUN OCCURS, TEMPS MAY GET A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THAT AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 40S COULD CREEP
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KY.
THE NEXT VORT LOBE WILL THEN ROTATE IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION. AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN STEEPER LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SQUALLS. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO SHUT OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. A STRONGER INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FALLING INTO THE 10-15
DEGREE RANGE. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 0-5 DEGREE
RANGE.
AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH THAT FIRST WAVE, WITH A SECOND ROUND
OF MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE SMALL, BUT GIVEN THE COLD AIR, A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF CAN GO A LONG WAY. THE FLUFFY/POWDERY SNOW WILL
BE HARD TO MEASURE, BUT MANY FOLKS WILL SEE A COATING TO AN INCH OF
SNOW OVERALL DURING THE PERIOD. SOME VERY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF SNOW COULD OCCUR WITHIN SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
BUT TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS AT THIS FORECAST TIME RANGE IS
IMPOSSIBLE. OVERALL, THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER WFO JKL'S SE AREAS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE 1-2 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES. PERIODS OF SLICK TRAVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY. ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE LOOKS TO ROLL THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THAT, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER
20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL MODERATE SOME WITH READINGS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN KY
LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. SIMILAR READINGS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THE TELECONNECTION PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A -NAO/-AO/-EPO/NEUTRAL PNA PATTERN. THIS
SUPPORTS THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE WEST PACIFIC OSCILLATION
(WPO) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE HERE AS WELL. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MJO HAS
BEEN HANGING OUT IN THE NULL PHASE BUT IS EXPECTED TO PULSE OUT INTO
PHASE 6 NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. TYPICALLY PHASE 6 IN
JANUARY IS MILD, BUT HERE WE WILL BE IN A RATHER COLD PERIOD
INITIALLY. HOWEVER, THE MJO SPIKE INTO PHASE 6 MAY RESULT IN A
SHORT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND THE EMERGENCE OF THE SE RIDGE.
WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BUILD THIS RIDGE, I'M NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL GROW ALL THAT MUCH GIVEN THE -WPO FORECAST BY
THE MODELS.
IT DOES SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME RETREAT OF THE COLDER CORE OF AIR
WILL TAKE PLACE AND LOCALLY WE'LL MODERATE OUR TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.
IT SEEMS THAT WE MAY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE BAROCLINIC ZONE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AROUND 1/23-1/24. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS, BUT
I EXPECT TO SEE RATHER POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HERE WITH HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE IT. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LEAD US TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE. IN THEORY, WE SHOULD HAVE A
PRETTY DECENT COLD DOME IN PLACE WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO
SCOUR OUT INITIALLY. HOWEVER, ANY SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THE NET RESULT HERE IS THAT ALL THREATS COULD BE
ON THE TABLE HERE (RAIN/WINTRY MESS/SNOW). SIGNAL ANALYSIS FROM
EARLY JANUARY HAS BEEN POINTING TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE
1/24-1/27 PERIOD.
WHILE THE MJO IS FORECAST EMERGE IN PHASE 6 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD, MOST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A STRONG ORBIT INTO PHASE 7/8 BY
THE END OF JANUARY AND INTO PHASE 1/2 BY EARLY FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD
BE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN
US TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH AND INTO FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
RAIN COMMENCING ACROSS THE AREA. INITIALLY, WE'LL STAY VFR WITH
LITTLE TO NO VIS RESTRICTION, HOWEVER EVENTUALLY CEILINGS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE PRE-DAWN TO AROUND SUNRISE TIME
RANGE. IN ADDITION, VIS RESTRICTIONS IN MORE STEADY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SW AND WSW WINDS VEERING TO A NW
COMPONENT AND GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS AT LEX BEFORE THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT RAIN
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND SPOTTY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND COULD SEE
AN END TO PRECIPITATION WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS
EVENING. WON'T ADVERTISE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS
CYCLE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BJS
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