604
FXUS63 KLMK 141638
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1138 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A TRANSITION TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
* SOME LIGHT COATINGS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS SE
INDIANA INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KY, AND AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
* ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BRINING SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
KLVX RADAR SHOWS THE LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF I-
65, WITH THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND IT. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE LOW TO MID-40S, THOUGH MUCH STRONGER CAA
REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE, WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE SOME SWATHS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE WILL STRUGGLE TO SATURATE
THE DGZ ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A
LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE ON MAINLY ELEVATED OR GRASSY SURFACES. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
CURRENT MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS THE TALE AS A DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME IS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE IN FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS (.75" THROUGH THE COLUMN) AND SOME H7
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN, ESPECIALLY OHIO RIVER SOUTHWARD. AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN IN WILL
STAY IN THE LIKELY RANGE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL FEATURE
CATEGORICAL POPS, AND SHOULD EXPECT AROUND .1" TO .25" TOTAL THROUGH
TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS POISED TO DROP IN FROM THE NW LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
DROPPING FROM THAT POINT FORWARD. IN OTHER WORDS, A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE, AND A LIKELY UNPLEASANT DESCENT BACK INTO WINTER
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME FOR THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE TO PREP FOR A SNOW-SUPPORTING SOUNDING, BUT WITH STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE
30S WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION IN P-TYPE. HOWEVER, BY THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING, AND WE'LL BE LEFT WITH
MORE MEAGER 1000-850 MB MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE ROTATING IN BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AND WITH
SATURATION REACHING INTO THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE DGZ WE SHOULD SEE
RATES ENOUGH TO REDUCE VIS AND PERHAPS PUT SOME STREAKY COATINGS ON
GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SE INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND DOWN THROUGH THE I-75
CORRIDOR WHERE SOME UPSLOPE MAY ENHANCE THINGS A BIT. TOUGH TO TELL
FOR SURE WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY FALLING, BUT DO THINK ROADS WILL MOSTLY
BE UN-IMPACTED GIVEN THE WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND SOME LAG
BEHIND THE FALLING AIR TEMP. DO HAVE SOME MINOR CONCERN ABOUT ANY
WET-SURFACE RE-FREEZING AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 20S LATER TONIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID, GUSTY WINDS USUALLY TAKE CARE OF THAT PRETTY
EFFICIENTLY AND WILL JUST MONITOR FOR NOW.
ONCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TODAY, LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. PEAK
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE
ONCE AGAIN. THEREAFTER, MOST GUSTS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH. AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE ON THURSDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. GIVEN THE WINDS,
MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. DRESS EVERYONE WARM FOR THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE! COULD BE A BIT OF A SHOCK GIVEN THE OVERALL MILDER
WEATHER WE'VE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
THURSDAY - LATE THURSDAY EVENING...
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS WINDOW AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE AREA DESPITE A BROAD
EASTERN CONUS PARENT TROUGH IN PLACE. COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
THE MERCURY DOESN'T CLIMB A WHOLE LOT DURING THE DAY GIVEN STEADY
COLD ADVECTION AND THE WEAK MID JANUARY SUN ANGLE. MOST HIGHS SHOULD
STAY CONFINED TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S, BUT AT LEAST THERE WILL
BE SOME SUNSHINE.
FRIDAY MORNING - SATURDAY NIGHT...
BY FRIDAY MORNING, FOCUS SHIFTS UPSTREAM TO THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THAT AFOREMENTIONED PARENT TROUGH. A LOOK
AT SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS FOR THIS SYSTEM SHOWS A NOTABLY MOISTURE
STARVED PROFILE WITH THE ORIGIN DIRECTLY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
OVERALL, THE LOW LEVEL LOOK TO HAVE A BIT OF TROUBLE SATURATING, BUT
DO EXPECT WE'LL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO
OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT VORT MAX. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE TIMING OF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THIS BRIEF EVENT, ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. NOT A LOT OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF
MOISTURE, HOWEVER WITH A SNOW RATIO AROUND 15:1 WE COULD GET SOME
LIGHT COATINGS FOR FOLKS FRIDAY AM. THIS ONE COULD BE TOUGH TO
MESSAGE AS AMOUNTS WOULD NOT MEET ANY 1" CRITERIA, BUT IMPACT COULD
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME ENHANCED MESSAGING. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND AND DISCUSS AS WE APPROACH THIS EVENT.
AFTER ANY QUICK HITTING SNOW ON FRIDAY MORNING, THE REST OF FRIDAY
(DAYTIME) SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY IN THE SUBSIDENT WAKE OF THE LEAD
WAVE, AND WAITING ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE. TEMPS SHOULD WARM A ABOVE FREEZING DURING FRIDAY PM
THANKS TO SOME BRIEF WARM ADVECTION. NBM IS GOING FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 40S FOR MOST, WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE
DONE ON A PRETTY PURE WARM ADVECTION COMPONENT GIVEN FAIRLY HEAVY
EXPECTED SKY COVER. WE'LL SEE IF TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE A LOWERED A
BIT FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ANOMALOUSLY LOW H5 HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AND SEVERAL VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH.
THE GENERAL IDEA IS THERE FOR A SNOW SHOWERY, GUSTY, AND COLD
STRETCH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF SNOW
EXPECTED FROM AN AMOUNTS STANDPOINT, HOWEVER THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME APPEARS TO CARRY THE MOST POTENTIAL FROM AN
INTENSITY STANDPOINT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AMID MOISTURE
REACHING THROUGH THE DGZ. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A
FAVORABLE TEMP PROFILE, AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
PURE SQUALL POTENTIAL WITH THIS SETUP. THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SQUALLS, AND WITH
SUPPORTIVE SOUNDINGS, AND THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER CALLING FOR
VALUES OF 3-4+, IT HAS MY ATTENTION MORE THAN USUAL. SOMETHING WE'LL
BE KEEPING AN EYE ON IN THE COMING DAYS, BUT AT LEAST WE'LL BE INTO
WEEKEND TRAFFIC PATTERNS INSTEAD OF MORNING/EVENING COMMUTES.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS WILL KEEP COLD
AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE
AN OVERALL DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY PASSING MORE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BY THIS TIME. OVERALL
LOWER CONFIDENCE THOUGH GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE MANY SHORTWAVE
INTERACTIONS WITH THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE PARENT TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S EACH
DAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS EACH DAY, AND PERHAPS SOME
SINGLE DIGITS IN SPOTS. GIVEN WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TIME, WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT TIMES. SINGLE DIGITS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THE TELECONNECTION PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A -NAO/-AO/-EPO/NEUTRAL PNA PATTERN. THIS
SUPPORTS THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE WEST PACIFIC OSCILLATION
(WPO) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE HERE AS WELL. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MJO HAS
BEEN HANGING OUT IN THE NULL PHASE BUT IS EXPECTED TO PULSE OUT INTO
PHASE 6 NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. TYPICALLY PHASE 6 IN
JANUARY IS MILD, BUT HERE WE WILL BE IN A RATHER COLD PERIOD
INITIALLY. HOWEVER, THE MJO SPIKE INTO PHASE 6 MAY RESULT IN A
SHORT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND THE EMERGENCE OF THE SE RIDGE.
WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BUILD THIS RIDGE, I'M NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL GROW ALL THAT MUCH GIVEN THE -WPO FORECAST BY
THE MODELS.
IT DOES SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME RETREAT OF THE COLDER CORE OF AIR
WILL TAKE PLACE AND LOCALLY WE'LL MODERATE OUR TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.
IT SEEMS THAT WE MAY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE BAROCLINIC ZONE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AROUND 1/23-1/24. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS, BUT
I EXPECT TO SEE RATHER POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HERE WITH HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE IT. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LEAD US TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE. IN THEORY, WE SHOULD HAVE A
PRETTY DECENT COLD DOME IN PLACE WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO
SCOUR OUT INITIALLY. HOWEVER, ANY SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THE NET RESULT HERE IS THAT ALL THREATS COULD BE
ON THE TABLE HERE (RAIN/WINTRY MESS/SNOW). SIGNAL ANALYSIS FROM
EARLY JANUARY HAS BEEN POINTING TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE
1/24-1/27 PERIOD.
WHILE THE MJO IS FORECAST EMERGE IN PHASE 6 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD, MOST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A STRONG ORBIT INTO PHASE 7/8 BY
THE END OF JANUARY AND INTO PHASE 1/2 BY EARLY FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD
BE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN
US TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH AND INTO FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. EVENTUALLY CEILINGS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. IN ADDITION, VIS RESTRICTIONS IN MORE STEADY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SW AND WSW WINDS VEERING TO A NW
COMPONENT AND GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS AT LEX BEFORE THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIGHT RAIN
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND SPOTTY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND COULD SEE
AN END TO PRECIPITATION WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS
EVENING. WON'T ADVERTISE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS
CYCLE. GUSTS LIKELY REMAIN INTO TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE MORE IN THE 20-
25 MPH RANGE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
EXTENDED...MJ
AVIATION...BJS
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