714
FXUS63 KLMK 150533
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1233 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S BY TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH EXPECTED.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH SOME LIGHT COATINGS OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS INDIANA
INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KY, AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
* ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BRINING SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
COMBINATION OF THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FROM THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA. KLVX RADAR HAS SHOWN A PRETTY STOUT AND PROLONGED BAND OF SNOW
ACROSS FLOYD CO INDIANA ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOUISVILLE METRO WITH A
FEW ADDITIONAL BANDS OVER THE AREA. AS WE THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BECOME LESS STEEP AND THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THE
SNOW SHOWERS AND BANDS WILL START TO DIMINISH WITH SOME LOCATIONS
PICKING UP TO AN INCH WHERE THE BANDS WERE ABLE TO SIT FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. STILL THINK THE VAST MAJORITY WILL SEE A
COATING TO MAYBE A HALF INCH OF SNOW A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH. HAVE UPGRADED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ONGOING AND CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS WITH INCREASED POPS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS. GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL REMAIN
ADDING LOW VISIBILITY TO ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL SLICK
SPOTS DEVELOPING ON AREA ROADS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
THE LOW 20S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN COOLING THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NOW BEING REPORTED FROM KY MESONET OBS.
STRONG CAA REGIME IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED
THROUGH, WITH GUSTY NW WINDS THAT ARE GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. THESE
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN A POST-FRONTAL FLOW.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF 700MB FGEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IN,
LOCATED WITH THE LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH. WITH TEMPS COOLING IN THE COLUMN, LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING
QUITE STEEP, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ACARS DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW
A MARGINAL MOISTURE LAYER, WITH SATURATION JUST REACHING THE BOTTOM
PORTION OF THE DGZ. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP, WHICH INITIALLY COULD BE AS BRIEF LIGHT MIX OF P-TYPES
BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN HOW STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE,
WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF BUT HEALTHY SNOW RATES THAT COULD REDUCE VIS
FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER HIGHLIGHTING OUR AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THERE'S SOME RELUCTANCE TO CALL THESE RADAR RETURNS SQUALLS
GIVEN WE ARE NOT FULLY SATURATED IN THE DGZ. EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY
STREAKS OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS, MOSTLY ON GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES,
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IN, NORTH-CENTRAL KY, AND THE BLUEGRASS
AREA.
GIVEN THE WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, ROAD TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE
40S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SUB-SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP OUR ROADS UN-IMPACTED FOR THE MOST PART, UNLESS ANY SNOW RATES
JUST OVERCOME THOSE WARMER GROUND TEMPS. EVENTUALLY ROAD TEMPS WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING BY TOMORROW MORNING AS AIR TEMPS FALL INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S, WHICH COULD POSE A LOW RISK FOR RE-FREEZING
ANY WET SURFACES. HOWEVER, WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
GUSTS USUALLY DO A GOOD JOB AT DRYING OUT THE ROADS. THE COMBINATION
OF THOSE COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP OUR WIND CHILLS WELL
INTO THE LOW TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE TOO BY TOMORROW
MORNING.
PRECIP CHANCES EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO A DRIER
STRETCH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT TOMORROW. MUCH
COLDER TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR TOMORROW AS CAA PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING. MOST, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. SHOULD HAVE A SUNNY DAY AS WE
WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
===== FRIDAY - SATURDAY =====
WE REMAIN UNDER GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING FOR FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE PRIMARY LOW SITTING OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SECOND CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN IN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL KY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. ONE LIMITATION
WORKING IN OUR FAVOR COULD BE LIMITED MOISTURE, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRIER AIR BELOW 850MB, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE
DGZ TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. GIVEN THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE, WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FRIDAY AM, SLRS
RANGING BETWEEN 14:1 TO 16:1 WILL BE POSSIBLE. DESPITE LITTLE OVERALL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT, THOSE SNOW RATIOS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR DISCUSSION,
THIS ROUND OF SNOW CHANCES COULD BE TOUGH TO MESSAGE AS AMOUNTS
WOULD NOT MEET ANY 1" CRITERIA, BUT IMPACT DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE COULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME ENHANCED MESSAGING, SUCH AS
AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY. NO DECISION ON THAT YET, BUT SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
AFTER THAT MORNING ROUND OF SNOW CHANCES, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA WILL HELP
BOOST OUR SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND INTO THE LOW TO MID-40S LATER
ON IN THE DAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, A STRONGER MID-LEVEL VORT WING
WILL SWING DOWN INTO THE TN VALLEY, SUPPORTING A THIRD ROUND OF SNOW
CHANCES TO THE AREA. BETTER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW, WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WITH MOISTURE THROUGH THE DGZ. SOME GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LIGHTING
UP THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
KY. COMBINED WITH SOME BREEZY WIND CONDITIONS, WE COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS MOVE THROUGH. BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS OUR BLUEGRASS REGION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNTIL WE GET MORE INTO THE HI-
RES WINDOW, BUT THERE'S SOME SIGNALS WORTH WATCHING.
WITH MORE OF A CAA REGIME ON SATURDAY, LOOK FOR TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE FREEZING. BEST CHANCE FOR ABOVE FREEZING, BUT STILL IN THE
30S, WILL BE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KY.
===== SUNDAY - TUESDAY =====
WE REMAIN COLD FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER, THIS
TIME FRAME SHOULD FEATURE A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH. TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS, WITH PARTS OF SOUTHERN
IN POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. WITH NW WINDS,
THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND NEAR
ZERO DURING SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH PERHAPS
THE COLDEST MORNING LOWS OCCURRING TUESDAY MORNING. WE COULD END UP
WITH MOST OF THE REGION IN SINGLE DIGITS, WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THE TELECONNECTION PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A -NAO/-AO/-EPO/NEUTRAL PNA PATTERN. THIS
SUPPORTS THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH STRONG
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE WEST PACIFIC OSCILLATION
(WPO) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE HERE AS WELL. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MJO HAS
BEEN HANGING OUT IN THE NULL PHASE BUT IS EXPECTED TO PULSE OUT INTO
PHASE 6 NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. TYPICALLY PHASE 6 IN
JANUARY IS MILD, BUT HERE WE WILL BE IN A RATHER COLD PERIOD
INITIALLY. HOWEVER, THE MJO SPIKE INTO PHASE 6 MAY RESULT IN A
SHORT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND THE EMERGENCE OF THE SE RIDGE.
WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BUILD THIS RIDGE, I'M NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL GROW ALL THAT MUCH GIVEN THE -WPO FORECAST BY
THE MODELS.
IT DOES SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME RETREAT OF THE COLDER CORE OF AIR
WILL TAKE PLACE AND LOCALLY WE'LL MODERATE OUR TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.
IT SEEMS THAT WE MAY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE BAROCLINIC ZONE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AROUND 1/23-1/24. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS, BUT
I EXPECT TO SEE RATHER POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY HERE WITH HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE IT. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LEAD US TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE. IN THEORY, WE SHOULD HAVE A
PRETTY DECENT COLD DOME IN PLACE WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO
SCOUR OUT INITIALLY. HOWEVER, ANY SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THE NET RESULT HERE IS THAT ALL THREATS COULD BE
ON THE TABLE HERE (RAIN/WINTRY MESS/SNOW). SIGNAL ANALYSIS FROM
EARLY JANUARY HAS BEEN POINTING TO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE
1/24-1/27 PERIOD.
WHILE THE MJO IS FORECAST EMERGE IN PHASE 6 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD, MOST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A STRONG ORBIT INTO PHASE 7/8 BY
THE END OF JANUARY AND INTO PHASE 1/2 BY EARLY FEBRUARY. THIS WOULD
BE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN
US TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH AND INTO FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES WITH STEADY TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NW WINDS HOLDING ON FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. LEX WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO HANGING ONTO A MARGINAL VFR/MVFR
CEILING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER MAY STAY JUST TO
THE NE OF THE TERMINAL, SO WILL START THIS FORECAST OUT OPTIMISTIC.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH STEADY TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WNW WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND GO SW TO SSW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH. SOME UPPER
SKY COVER BEGINS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...MJ/CJP
AVIATION...BJS
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