879
FXUS63 KLMK 151127
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
627 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S THIS MORNING. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A STEADY WIND WILL YIELD MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR MOST.
* PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
* A LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH COULD FALL AND
MAY CAUSE SLICK SPOTS FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
* MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS MAY
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65 WHERE A COATING TO AS MUCH AS 2"
MAY OCCUR.
* DRIER CONDITIONS BUT COLD EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
THE BULK OF THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH CAN STILL SEE SOME LIGHT RETURNS OFF THE CVG TDWR IN OUR
FAR NE CWA WHERE A 925-850MB MOISTURE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN STILL
RESIDES. EXPECT SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE UP IN
THAT AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN THAT SEEMS TO BE
IMPROVING IS THE PATCHY SLICK SPOTS THAT DEVELOPED WITH SPOTTY SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS EARLIER THIS EVENING. HAVE AN SPS
OUT FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA, BUT OVERALL A BROWSE THROUGH WEBCAMS SEEMS TO SHOW
IMPROVEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AS THE MERCURY HAS
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S WITH WIND STILL CHUGGING ALONG
PRETTY GOOD. AS A RESULT, WE'LL BE SEEING MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS MORNING.
THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD IN TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD,
DRY, AND MOSTLY PARTLY SUNNY DAY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE UNDER THE
STEADY COLD ADVECTION, AND HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT
WILL BE DRY, HOWEVER WE'LL START TO SEE UPPER SKY COVER MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANYTHING THAT FALLS TOWARD DAWN TO LIGHTLY ACCUMULATE. AFTER 06Z,
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN IN.
THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE BATTLING SOME PRETTY DRY SURFACE TO 4-5 K FEET
AIR, BUT NEVERTHELESS DO EXPECT A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH
POSSIBLE IN OUR NW QUADRANT OF THE CWA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SHORT-
FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AROUND THE 09-15Z
TIME PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW, IMPACT
TO THE MORNING COMMUTE WOULD OCCUR WITH ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL. SEE LONG
TERM FOR MORE INFO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
FRIDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT TO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL
BE FALLING OUT OF A 4-5K FOOT MID DECK WITH PRETTY DRY AIR BELOW IT.
REGARDLESS, LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS OUR NW QUADRANT OF THE CWA.
SLRS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 12-13:1 FOR THAT TIME PERIOD, WITH
SURFACE/ROAD TEMPS FAVORABLE AND PRIMED FOR LIGHT ACCUMS. COULD SEE
A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH AT MOST, BUT THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS TIMING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE FRIDAY AM COMMUTE. SNOW ONSET
AT THE HEART OF THE COMMUTE IS NEVER A GOOD THING REGARDLESS OF
SMALL AMOUNTS SO WILL BE FOCUSING ON HOW TO MESSAGE THIS SYSTEM. MAY
HAVE TO GO WITH A SHORT FUSED IMPACT BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FRIDAY AM FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND ALONG AND WEST OF I-
65. PROBABLY WON'T DO IT ON THIS ISSUANCE, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
DISCUSSED HOW BEST TO HANDLE.
OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOME, THINK WE'LL MOSTLY JUST
SEE SOME PATCHES OF FLURRIES THEN SPRINKLES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
OVERALL MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BRIEFLY TREND
MILDER INTO THE 40S ON A STEADY WARM ADVECTION COMPONENT THROUGH THE
DAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE PARENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING AT
THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE WILL GRADUALLY START TO
FEATURE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO
POOLING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET RESPONDS BENEATH THE
EXIT REGION OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE A BE A
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS THANKS TO THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL DOESN'T QUITE LOOK AS GOOD AS IT DID 24
HOURS AGO, BUT STILL WON'T RULE IT OUT GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE OVERALL
TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS GONE UP FOR AMOUNTS AND RIGHT NOW IT
SEEMS THAT AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A COATING TO A COUPLE INCHES FOR
AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-65. THIS IS A SYSTEM THAT MAY END UP NEEDING
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. NOT AS IMPACTFUL OF TIMING GIVEN THE
WEEKEND, BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.
DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES OUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WILL SHUT SNOWFALL DOWN, BUT
THE COLD TEMPS WILL POUR BACK IN. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN THE 0 TO 10
ABOVE RANGE.
SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY...
LOOKS TO BE A COLD AND DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER SUNDAY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S, MONDAY
WILL ONLY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH SOME TEMPS BACK NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
SOUTHERN KY. ONE FINAL COLD DAY ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE SOME MODERATION LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD MID
WEEK. LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ON TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE COLDEST DAY. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS EACH MORNING WILL LIKELY
FEATURE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME AT THE TAF SITES WITH
STEADY TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NW WINDS. LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH STEADY TO SPORADICALLY GUSTY WNW WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND GO SW TO SSW BETWEEN 5 AND 10
MPH. SOME UPPER SKY COVER BEGINS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TOWARD DAWN, LIGHT SNOW BEGINS ACROSS
HNB/SDF/LEX AS 4-5K FOOT CEILINGS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z OR SO.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS
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