418
FXUS63 KLMK 160538
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1238 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH COULD FALL AND MAY
CAUSE SLICK SPOTS FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. AN IMPACT-BASED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO FRIDAY MORNING SNOW.
* MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS MAY
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 AND EAST OF I-65 WHERE A COATING
TO AS MUCH AS 2" MAY OCCUR.
* DRIER CONDITIONS BUT COLD EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
ITS A COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER-20S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. QUIET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING AND MOST OF TONIGHT AS WE ARE
LOCATED BETWEEN SHORTWAVES, BUT WE REMAIN UNDER THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING PATTERN. WE REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT,
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO. TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS BY TOMORROW MORNING.
WE'LL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PIVOT AROUND THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW
TONIGHT AND WORK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SFC, AN
OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION, AND PUSH A WARM FRONT
INTO WESTERN KY BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN
AREA OF LIFT COMBINED WITH A CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GOOD SATURATION AND LIFT IN THE DGZ, BUT ANY SNOW
FALLING OUT OF THAT 5K FT CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE QUITE SOME DRY AIR TO
WORK THROUGH. REGARDLESS, STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME SNOW FALLING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KY.
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
OUTWEIGH THE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SLRS WILL BE AROUND 13-14:1 DURING
THAT TIME, WITH ROAD TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW FALLING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD CAUSE
SOME NEGATIVE TRAVEL IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES, OVERPASSES, AND
ANY UNTREATED ROADS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING TO UP TO HALF AN INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DUE TO EXPECTED IMPACTS, AND TO HELP GIVE HEADS UP TO OUR ROAD DEPT
PARTNERS, AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. WE KNOW WE WILL NOT MEET
CRITERIA, BUT THINK THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO HAVE NEGATIVE
IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY. THIS
ADVISORY WILL BE A SHORT-FUSE HEADLINE TO RAISE AWARENESS SPECIALLY
FOR EXPECTED ISSUES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
AFTER THE MORNING SNOW MOVES OUT, WE WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO BEING IN A WAA
PATTERN. AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
===== FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT ======
DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND VORT-MAXES
PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SFC TEMPS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING, WE COULD SEE LIGHT RAIN OR A MIX OF P-TYPES
AS COLDER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. EVENTUALLY WE DO
COOL TO BELOW FREEZING, WITH PRECIP SWITCHING OVER TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW. GIVEN HOW STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE, SOME HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME
CONSISTENCY ON THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
MODELS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 1-3.
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER 1 INCH IN
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY, INCLUDING THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
PER THE NBM, LEX AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN THE BLUEGRASS HAVE A 35%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF SNOW, AND ROUGHLY A 20% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. WE'LL PROBABLY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THIS SYSTEM TOO, BUT WE PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE SINCE WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH THE FRIDAY AM ROUND OF SNOW
FIRST. AS MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR DISCUSSION, THIS FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE SNOW BUT COULD BE NOT AS
IMPACTFUL GIVEN THE WEEKEND TIMING.
LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER BEYOND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING, BUT MOISTURE
WILL BE DEPARTING AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 30S, WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
===== SUNDAY - THURSDAY =====
MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. MORNING LOWS IN
THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, POSSIBLY WITH TUESDAY THE COLDEST
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH TUESDAY MORNING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS. BEYOND THAT, TEMPS BEGIN TO RECOVER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
MID TO UPPER CLOUDS WILL STEADILY BUILD DOWN LATER THIS MORNING,
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-
15Z. CEILINGS SHOULD STAY VFR DURING THIS STRETCH, HOWEVER SOME
BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS INTO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE.
THE MORNING WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF BEFORE A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS, SNOW SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS SOME SQUALLS, WORK INTO OUR AREA
FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS,
A FEW INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS, AND LOWERING CEILINGS INTO THE IFR RANGE
LIKELY FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT HNB.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
FOR KYZ030>037-040>043-049.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 10 AM EST
/9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS
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