619
FXUS63 KLMK 161728
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1228 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS MAY
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 AND EAST OF I-65 WHERE A COATING
TO AS MUCH AS 2" MAY OCCUR.
* DRIER CONDITIONS BUT COLD EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP ABOVE FREEZING THIS
MORNING, AND WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH THE 40S LATER TODAY AS WE
ARE WITHIN A WAA PATTERN. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME,
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL SEE
LIGHT RAIN INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
BY THIS EVENING. UPDATED SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS WITH WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH
STILL HIGHLIGHTS EAST OF I-65 AS THE BEST CHANCE OF PICKING UP 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW WITH OUR NEXT WAVE. WILL WORK ON COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS IN REGARDS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY, BUT NO
HEADLINE DECISION AS OF NOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
THINGS ARE COLD AND QUIET ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS HOUR, ALTHOUGH WILL
START A MORE VOLATILE STRETCH OF WEATHER GOING INTO LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE LIGHT RETURNS JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR
CWA WHERE SOME 4SM -SN HAS BEEN OBSERVED. WE'LL KEEP THE IMPACT
BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. LATEST MODEL RUNS DO
SHOW SOME OF THE RETURNS DRYING UP AS WE HEAD TOWARD 7 AM EST, BUT
FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OVERALL, NOT A BIG DEAL BUT
JUST WANTED FOLKS TO KNOW THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD BE FALLING
DURING YOUR DRIVE INTO WORK.
THE MORNING WAVE SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY 14-15Z, AND WE'LL HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW AND MID
40S FOR MOST ON A STEADY WARM ADVECTION COMPONENT. THIS BRIEF TREND
MILDER WON'T LAST LONG AS ANOTHER COLD SHOT COMES INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WE'LL WATCH A PRECIPITATION SHIELD/WARM CONVEYOR BELT BLOSSOM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP
BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE. WITH TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY MILD, WE'LL START OUT AS RAIN AND GRADUALLY TRY TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES LOOK KINDA MESSY FOR A WHILE, WHICH IS WHY IT
APPEARS SNOW MAY STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE INITIALLY. AS WE GO PAS
MIDNIGHT, P-TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPENING, ESPECIALLY FROM 09-18Z. HERE, WE'LL HAVE DEEP
SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ, AND WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WE MAY BE ABLE TO REALIZE SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT, THINK THIS WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALL POTENTIAL. THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA, NORTH CENTRAL KY, AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION CENTRAL
KY. OVERALL, THESE INTENSE AND GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS (GUSTS TO 35 TO 40
MPH???) COULD ADD SOME BRIEF, ISOLATED, BUT NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS IN
A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. OVERALL LOOKING FOR STORM TOTALS TO RANGE
FROM A COATING TO 2" OF SNOW FOR LOCALIZED SPOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRETTY TRICKY FORECAST, BUT WE'LL
LIKELY LOOK AT SOME SORT OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AFTER THIS
MORNING ONE EXPIRES AROUND/AFTER 15Z.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
SATURDAY - SATURDAY EVENING...
THE MAIN BAND OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER STILL HAVE
ONE MORE POTENT VORT MAX TO SWING THROUGH OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN, AND LOOK TO GET GOOD SATURATION
UP THROUGH -10 TO -20C. EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS BETWEEN AROUND 12-18Z MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS
AND IT APPEARS WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET 35 TO 40 MPH GUSTS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITH NAY SHOWER/SQUALL. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER ALSO SEEMS
TO GET MOST EXCITED BETWEEN 12-18Z, WITH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 3
AND 5 ACROSS SE INDIANA INTO THE BLUEGRASS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
INTENSITY OF SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, DO THINK ANOTHER DUSTING TO
A HALF INCH COULD ADD TO TOTALS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
BIGGER CONCERN WOULD SIMPLY BE THE DANGER TO DRIVING. WILL BE
POPULATING WITH MORE OF A CONSSHORT/CONSRAW BLEND TO BETTER CAPTURE
THE ADVECTIVE REGIME WE'LL BE IN.
SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...
THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. FROM HERE, IT IS
PRETTY MUCH JUST A COLD FORECAST AS DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON MOST OF
THE MORNING, HOWEVER TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MUCH OF THIS TIME, HOWEVER A FEW
INSTANCES OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY VALUES CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA BY MID
WEEK, HOWEVER MODELS DON'T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE FINE DETAILS.
BY THIS TIME, WE'LL BE MILDER SO WOULD EXPECT LIQUID P-TYPES FOR
THAT ROUND IF IT MATERIALIZES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A COLD FRONT AND LIGHT PRECIP
SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WE'LL SEE VIS DROP TO MVFR, THE IFR
FOR MOST BY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LEX AND RGA
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF HAVING A SHORT PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS TONIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WILL SWITCH OVER THE SNOW BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME REDUCED VIS IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
PRECIP WILL MOSTLY CLEAR BY TOMORROW, THOUGH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE AFTER THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, LEADING TO
SOME TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...CJP
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