510
FXUS63 KLMK 170204
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
904 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS EXPECTED
TO EVENTUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW
SQUALLS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65 WHERE A
COATING TO AS MUCH AS 2" MAY OCCUR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR COUNTIES EAST OF I-65.
* ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. ANY SNOW
SQUALLS CAN PRODUCE BRIEF INTENSE SNOW RATES, REDUCED VISIBILITY,
AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
* DRIER BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
PER OBSERVATIONS, MPING AND WEB CAMERAS WE ARE STARTING SEE THE
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA MAINLY EAST OF I-65, LIKELY SOME OF THIS SNOW IS MIXING WITH
RAIN AND TEMPERATURES PER THE KYMESO ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST GRID WAS LOWERING POPS
WEST OF I-65 BUT STILL KEEPING IT AT AROUND 20 PERCENT. ON WATER
VAPOR LOOP YOU CAN SEE A BIT OF A DRY SLOT STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST
IN DOWN TOWARDS EVANSVILLE, IN AND SOUTHERN IL. THIS IS ALSO
DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALL THREAT AS WE GO INTO
THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DRY SLOT AND SOME OF THE HI-RES CAMS
DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITIY THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IL AS IT
WORKS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS DROPPED
SOME, WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT MESSAGING.
THE OTHER THING OF NOTE HAS BEEN THE DISCUSSION OF EXPANDING POPS
MORE GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH A PV ANOMOLY MOVES IN. WE WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
SHIFT AND BE ADDRESSED ALONG WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
SPS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW 40S
FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE KY PKWYS, AND UP TO 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US,
WITH THE OHIO VALLEY UNDERNEATH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF PRECIP STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, WHICH IS LOCATED ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
POTENT VORT MAX SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN.
WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE INITIAL PRECIP
ONSET THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN. WE ALREADY SEE SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, THOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 1
KM WILL DELAY ONSET FOR SOME TIME. ACARS DATA OUT OF SDF BACKS UP
THE PRESENCE OF THIS DRY LAYER, AS WELL AS SEEING SFC OBS REPORT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 20 DEGREES. EVENTUALLY WE'LL SEE OUR
PROFILES SATURATE DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS, FIRST ACROSS OUR NORTH,
AND A BIT LATER TO OUR SOUTH. AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN, P-TYPES
BECOME QUITE MESSY THIS EVENING AS WE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY REMAIN ALL RAIN
OR AS A RAIN-SNOW MIX AS THEY REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER.
LATER TONIGHT, P-TYPES WILL MOSTLY SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW AS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY.
WITH DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ, AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES,
SOME HEAVIER SNOW RATES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION
TONIGHT. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER GENERALLY AGREES BY HIGHLIGHTING
AREAS EAST OF I-65 FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SNOW RATIONS WILL
START OUT QUITE LOW, AROUND 9:1 DUE TO THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS, BUT
AS WE GET COLDER THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOSE RATIOS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15:1. DUE TO THESE FACTORS, SOME HEAVIER SNOW BANDS OR
SQUALLS MAY BE POSSIBLE, AND COULD PRODUCE BRIEF BUT INTENSE SNOW
RATES, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND SOME NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS. BECAUSE
OF THIS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES EAST
OF I-65 WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS, ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES, AND
SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY. THIS HEADLINE RUNS UNTIL 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY PRECIP SHIELD SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, THOUGH WE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DONE WITH SNOW CHANCES
JUST YET. THE PARADE OF VORT MAXES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, AND
WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES, WE COULD REALIZE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH SATURATION STILL EXTENDING UP INTO THE
DGZ. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS, DO THINK ANOTHER
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH COULD ADD TO TOTALS. HOWEVER, AS WITH ALL
SNOW SQUALLS, THE BIGGER CONCERN WOULD SIMPLY BE THE DANGER TO
DRIVING CONDITIONS IN ANY SQUALL.
AFTER PERHAPS A LULL OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
EVENING AS WELL, JUST AHEAD OF THE FINAL MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTING
ACROSS THE REGION. LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LOOK STEEP, BUT A BIT
MORE DRY AIR TO WORK THROUGH IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. RATES COULD
OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR SINCE IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH. THERE IS
SOME SIGNAL FOR SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE RAP
THE MOST EXCITED AT THIS TIME. BOTH THE NAM 3KM AND HRRR 18Z SUITE
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS, SO CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY GROWING ON
ADDITIONAL SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
BY SUNDAY MORNING, DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SYNOPTICALLY, A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING
SOUTHWARD, RESULTING IN LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONTIGUOUS US, WHILE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OF THE WESTERN
COASTLINE. THIS PATTERN REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MORE ON THESE COLD TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY MODIFIED CP AIRMASS WILL
HAVE SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS, WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS LIMP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH OUR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES TOUCHING 30. A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN MONDAY, TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-
25MPH RANGE, RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, EXPECT
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT, WHICH WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS CLOSE TO ZERO DEGREES F.
BY WEDNESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT EAST AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY, PRODUCING WAA AND PROVIDING A BIT OF RELIEF
FROM THE BITTER COLD. EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. OUR NEXT RAIN
CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AS WELL, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIQUID. EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 903 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TAFS AS CURRENT MODELS ARE DOING A POOR JOB
ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. WHILE WE DO SEE LOW CIG AND EVEN RAIN TO SNOW
TIMING AND JUST HOW LOW CIGS GET ALONG WITH VIS IS THE MOST
CHALLENGING. WHILE I PUT SOME PRECIP IN FOR SDF CURRENT RADAR IS NOT
VERY SUPPORTING NOW OF ANY RAIN LET ALONE SNOW. I COULD SEE A MUCH
SLOWER TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS WELL AS THE DROP IN CIG AND
THERE MAY NEED TO BE AMENDMENTS. WHEN THE SNOW GETS STARTED WHEN
DOES IT END. OVERALL TRIED TO USE PREVIOUS TAFS WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND EVEN NEWEST GUIDANCE TO GET MY BEST OVERALL GUESS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR
KYZ033>043-045>049-054>057-064>067-077-078.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BTN
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