869
FXUS63 KLMK 171217
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
717 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. ANY SNOW SQUALLS CAN PRODUCE BRIEF INTENSE SNOW RATES,
REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
* DRY BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY. WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED, AND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL HOVERING
JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST PLACES. SFC COLD FRONT IS NOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION, BUT BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS, HAVE CUT
BACK POPS EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING. BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY WRAPS
CYCLONICALLY FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT IS ON OUR DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THE MOMENT, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S. HOWEVER, SFC OBS REVEAL W/NW WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS
UPSTREAM ACROSS MO/IL.
THE WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WE SAW EARLIER IS NOW
WINDING DOWN IN OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT. A LIGHT COATING UP TO ONE INCH WAS OBSERVED IN MANY
OF THE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MULTIPLE
ROADS, ESPECIALLY RURAL OR SMALLER NEIGHBORHOOD STREETS, MAY REMAIN
SLICK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP
AFTER 08-09Z THIS MORNING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE MAJORITY
CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HI-RES CAMS POINTS TO RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS OVERALL, WHICH AGREES WITH THE LATEST UPSTREAM RADAR
IMAGERY. I DO WONDER IF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SIMPLY TOO DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE. THAT SAID, WE DO HAVE HEALTHY
MID-LEVEL DPVA WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT ITSELF SWEEPING THROUGH. A
BRIEF, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER LOOKS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08-13Z THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE
AND STILL MARGINAL SFC TEMPS, BUT VERY LOCALIZED SLICK ROADS COULD
RESULT FROM ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOW.
LOW-LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS IN EARNEST TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH, WITH WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
VORT MAX ROTATES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER BY
THIS TIME WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ALL THE MOISTURE CONCENTRATED
IN THE DGZ. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME. STILL, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS DO LOOK POSSIBLE,
WHICH COULD PRODUCE RAPID VISIBILITY DROPS AND GUSTY WINDS. ANY
SHORT-FUSED WINTER HAZARDS THIS EVENING WILL MORE LIKELY BE
HIGHLIGHTED WITH SNOW SQUALL SPS/WARNING PRODUCTS IF NECESSARY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S THIS
EVENING, INCREASING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SLICK ROADS WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BY EARLY SUNDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A DEEP UPPER LOW WOBBLES CYCLONICALLY OVER CANADA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES HELPING TO
REINFORCE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER.
BRIEF SW FLOW WAA AHEAD OF A WEAK CLIPPER PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT'S AS WARM AS IT'LL GET EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES CRASH
AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH A BRUTAL SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND A DRY COLD
FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 20S.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -5 TO 10 LOOK POSSIBLE
DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS.
SW FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 20S (NE) TO MID 30S
(SW) TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL ATTEMPT TO TAP INTO MORE GULF MOISTURE BEFORE DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A WINTRY
MIX OF P-TYPES LOOKS POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 717 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT EAST OF I-65 THIS MORNING, AND
LEX/RGA SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITHIN 2-3 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS
CROSSING CENTRAL KY THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS VEERING WESTERLY AND
INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO GET MORE
THAN A BRIEF FLURRY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN AND MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES SLIGHTLY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
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