960
FXUS63 KLMK 180012
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
712 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. ANY SNOW SQUALLS CAN PRODUCE BRIEF INTENSE SNOW RATES,
REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
* DRY BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SINGLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH WIND
CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY.
* PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THIS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE POSITIVELY TILTED MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
SWING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS BRINGING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PROMOTE SNOW SHOWERS. CAA HAS ALLOWED LAPSE RATES TO
STEEPEN, WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AND A SNOW
SQUALL. IN THE LOW LEVELS, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WHICH
IS HELPING TO EVAPORATE SOME PRECIP INITIALLY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S. PRECIP MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN/SPRINKLES AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW. BEST
TIMING IS 20-4Z.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR BEHIND THE PRECIP. CONTINUED CAA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID TEENS. STEADY, WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY MORNING.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL KEEP
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WEAK CAA IN THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA, THOUGH SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER TEENS AND WIND CHILLS RANGING -1
TO 5 OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND 5 TO 10 OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
MONDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY DURING THIS TIME. UPPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER BROAD TROUGHING
WILL ALLOW HIGH TO REMAIN IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. LOW TEMPERATURE ON
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST OF THIS FORECAST, IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING WIND CHILLS INTO
THE -5 TO 0 RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND 0 TO 8
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. WE MAY NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ON
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BLUEGRASS, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
MONITORING FORECAST WIND CHILLS.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY MORNING...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WAA INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LLJ WILL USHER IN
BETTER MOISTURE AND PROMOTE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THESE SHOWERS MAY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW.
THURSDAY - END OF NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING DRIER
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...
THE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK IS QUITE
ACTIVE, WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
MULTIPLE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT TIMING MAY SHIFT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 711 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST TOWARDS LEX AND RGA. DON'T
BELIEVE ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE FOR AREA
TAF SITES TONIGHT. WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS GUSTY AS LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...KDW
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