832
FXUS63 KLMK 030554
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1254 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES STILL COLD
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S, BUT OVERALL A BIT MILDER.
* A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. 1 TO 2" OF SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-64. ALONG I-64 A COATING TO 1" OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
LOW CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION, LEADING
TO CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS A BRIEF
BREAK IN CLOUDS, AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IN THESE CLEAR AREAS, CALM WINDS ARE ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO COOL. WE ARE SEEING SOME SITES IN THE MID 20S AT
THIS TIME. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS.
TAKING A LOOK AT SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE, CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS HAS DECREASED, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURING THESE
HOURS. ALSO NARROWED AND SHARPENED THE TIMEFRAME OF HIGHEST POPS IN
THE GRIDS. FORECAST TIMING OF SNOW ONSET FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE, JUST LINGERED POPS ON TUESDAY EVENING A BIT
LONGER AS THIS SYSTEM MAY TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CONCERN IS
WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY, THE SIGNAL FOR VERY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN IS STILL PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. CURRENT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD, BUT THE NEXT
FORECAST MAY ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OR ISSUE AN
SPS OVER THESE AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
QUIET WEATHER ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES ARE JUST
SQUEAKING ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. NOT SURE OUR
NE CWA IS GOING TO QUITE MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING, BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE TO DO IT BRIEFLY TOMORROW FOR THOSE AREAS. COULD HAVE SOME
BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
CWA, HOWEVER MID CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN PRETTY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, SO THAT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM TANKING TOO MUCH. STILL
LOWS IN THE 20S LIKELY FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERYONE. THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
PATCHY NATURE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE CONCERN SO WON'T MESSAGE HARD AT THIS TIME. STILL, SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
THE BIG FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE TUESDAY WINTRY MIX EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. PRETTY COMPLICATED SYSTEM TO MESSAGE AND FORECAST
GIVEN SEVERAL VARIABLES. 1.) THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED
THANKS TO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES/MOISTURE SOURCES THAT STRUGGLE TO
PHASE INTO A LARGER AND MORE UNIFORM PRECIPITATION SHIELD. TIME
HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LEAD (NORTHERN WAVE) HAVING A LOT OF
MID AND UPPER MOISTURE, BUT FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. MEANWHILE,
THE SECOND (SOUTHERN) WAVE ARRIVES A BIT LATE TO THE GAME AND SHOULD
MAINLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KY
TUESDAY PM.
2.) MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR A MORNING
FRONTOGENETICAL LIGHT SNOW BAND ACROSS OUR N AND NE CWA, OR JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE AREA. GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS BAND,
MESSAGING SNOW START TIME HAS BEEN TRICKY, AND MORNING IS WHEN THE
BEST SNOW RATIOS WOULD BE. SO, DECIDED TO START THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE ADVISORY A BIT EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS
MESSAGE OVERALL HIGHER TOTALS (1 TO 2") FOR THEM. THINK THEY CAN
GET THERE WITH THE 2ND AFTERNOON/EVENING WAVE ANYWAY, BUT ANY
MORNING SNOW WOULD HELP PUSH THEM MORE SOLIDLY INTO THAT RANGE.
3.) SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE A BIT ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
BATTLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CURRENT DRAWN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, SO THIS MAKES JUST HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE A BIT
TRICKY. IT IS LIKELY THAT ROAD/SURFACE TEMPS MAY LAG AIR TEMPS A BIT
GIVEN HOW COLD IT HAS BEEN, SO IT IS POSSIBLE TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS
SCENARIO, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET PAST 3 OR 4 PM. IN ADDITION, RATES
COULD BE IMPRESSIVE FOR A FEW HOURS GIVEN THE FRONTOGENETICAL
COMPONENT EVIDENT IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER, COMBINED WITH SOME
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE DGZ. A BIT CONCERNED DRIER LOW LEVELS
COULD HURT ACCUMULATIONS POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IF THE SOUTHERN
MOISTURE DOESN'T ARRIVE IN TIME. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
4.) THE AFTERNOON EVENING/COMMUTE, INCLUDING SCHOOLS. GIVEN THE
ONSET TIME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BEING FROM
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED, INCLUDING THE LOUISVILLE
AND LEXINGTON METRO AREAS. EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MORE IN THE DUSTING TO 1" RANGE HERE, THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO THE COMMUTE TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AS WELL. COULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS
THESE COUNTIES FROM N TO S AS WARMER TEMPS CUT INTO TOTALS EVEN
MORE. STILL, LOOKS TO BE A FEW HOURS WHERE RATES WILL BE DECENT
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SLIGHTLY "MILDER" SURFACE TEMPS FOR SOME
SLICK SPOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS SECOND TIER OF THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TWEAKED OR MASSAGED TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW, BUT WANTED TO
GET MESSAGING OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. DO HAVE A SLIGHTLY LATER
START TIME FOR THIS SEGMENT AS THE MORNING NORTHERN SNOW BAND SHOULD
BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THIS AREA.
5.) ALSO A BIT WORRIED THAT AS THE LEAD (NORTHERN) WAVE SCOOTS
THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE LATE EVENING, WE ARE ONLY LEFT WITH SOME
FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN WAVE. SOME DATA ONLY SHOWS
THIS SATURATING UP TO AROUND - 5 TO -8C, WHICH LEAVES ICE NUCLEI
INTRODUCTION A BIT QUESTIONABLE. WORRIED WE MAY END THE EVENT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE, OR MORE
HOPEFULLY JUST SNIZZLE. SPEAKING OF FREEZING RAIN, WE'LL ALSO HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT GLAZING ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHERE SURFACE MAY STILL BE BELOW FREEZING DESPITE
AIR TEMPS INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S. HREF FRAM SOLUTIONS TRY TO SHOW
A GLAZE POSSIBLE FOR THIS SCENARIO ACROSS CENTRAL KY, AND CAN'T RULE
IT OUT. DON'T HAVE THIS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BECAUSE IT MAY
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR WHAT IS STILL ONGOING FROM THE LAST
STORM, BUT SOMETHING TO BE MINDFUL OF IN CASE SOME SLICK SPOTS START
DEVELOPING TOMORROW. COULD NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY WELL SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS 3RD TIERED THREAT IF IT DEVELOPS.
OVERALL, QUITE A BIT TO THINK ABOUT AND MESSAGE FOR THIS RELATIVELY
QUICK AND MINOR SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. OVERALL, FELL FAIRLY GOOD ABOUT
WHERE CURRENT ADVISORY IS PLACED, ALTHOUGH WON'T BE SURPRISED IF IT
NEEDS SOME ADJUSTMENTS BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY BEFORE ONSET
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT...
GENERAL TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. LOOKS TO BE A COLD AND
DRY STRETCH THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
LINGERING 1000-850 MB MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE THERE
COULD BE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
OTHERWISE, COLD AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, AND LOWS IN THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT HOLDS FOR FRIDAY, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE FLOW. COULD BRING SOME
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WE GET PRETTY MILD (RELATIVELY
SPEAKING) AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
40S ON A WARM ADVECTION COMPONENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OUR NE CWA, BUT OVERALL
DON'T EXPECT BIG IMPACTS WITH THIS ONE GIVEN THE MILD TEMPS AHEAD OF
IT, AND THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE QPF.
FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...
NW FLOW ALOFT THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKING HOLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM FRIDAY'S SYSTEM.
LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SATURDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THINGS TRY TO QUICKLY MODERATE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND 40S ON SUNDAY, AND THEN WELL INTO THE 40S
BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS AND THEME FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. WE LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA LATER TODAY. INITIALLY WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN UPPER TO MID-
LEVEL CLOUD THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OF RAIN/SNOW TO FORM
BUT THE BETTER CHANCE APPEARS TO BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z
FOR SDF TOWARDS LEX. MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS WHERE DOES THE STRONGEST
OF THE SNOW DEVELOP TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE WE SEE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF STEADY HEAVY SNOW WITH LOW CIG/VIS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES AFTER 00Z, THEN OUR CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS
AROUND IFR TO LIFR AND POTENTIALLY SO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ030-034-035-040-041-049.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR KYZ031>033-036-037-042-043.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR INZ076-084-090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR INZ077>079-092.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BTN
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