885
FXUS63 KLMK 031659
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1159 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, RAIN AND
SNOW, AND FOR SOME ALL RAIN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A NARROW
BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR. 1 TO 2" OF SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD FALL NORTH OF
I-64 WITH A COATING UP TO 1" OF SNOW RIGHT ALONG I-64
* MAIN IMPACT COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE.
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT...
A STORM SYSTEM LATER TODAY WILL SPREAD SNOW, RAIN/SNOW AND RAIN OVER
THE CWA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR STARTING
AROUND MIDDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTES
SNOWFALL FORECAST...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING IS SHOWING BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IL AND WEST CENTRAL IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS INITIAL LIGHT BANDING OF SNOW TO DEVELOP JUST
NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL IN POTENTIALLY WORKING INTO
JEFFERSON CO IN BY MID MORNING. MOST OF THIS SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THANKS TO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID 20S AND COULD BE INTO THE LOW 30S WHEN THIS
INITIAL SNOW STARTS TO DEVELOP.
THE SECOND PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS A WEAK SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN OK. THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK INTO THE OZARKS
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL ADVECT IN WARM, MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS WAS
POINTED OUT IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THIS SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER
DISJOINTED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE HI-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE TWO FEATURES STRUGGLING TO PHASE INTO
ONE LARGE MORE COHESIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
GIVEN THAT WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
NORTH AND JUST ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA THIS
MORNING, GOING TO CONTINUE WITH THE SEGMENTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY, WITH THE NORTHERN TIER STARTING AROUND MID-MORNING ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES. THIS IS WHY THIS PORTION OF THE ADVISORY
HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW, AS LOCATION HERE MAY SEE SNOW FOR THE
LONGEST DURATION AND HAVE THE HIGHER SLR.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WHAT FALLS IN THE ADVISORY IS MAINLY
SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THAT GOES INTO EFFECT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS PROFILES NUDGE IN A BIT OF A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 900-800MB
THANK TO A 25-30KT LLJ AROUND 850MB. THE COLUMN APPEARS BE SATURATED
ABOVE 900MB THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHALLOW DRY LAYER JUST BELOW. AS
SNOW FALLS, I THINK THIS WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN, LOWER
TEMPERATURES INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY SNOW, BUT SOME SLEET
MIXED IS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY UNDER PERFORMED GUIDANCE THANKS TO
CLOUD COVER AND SNOWPACK, DECIDED TO SCALE BACK ON HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. I
ALSO THINK THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS LOWER AS LOOKING AT ROAD
SFC TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, THEY ARE RANGING BETWEEN 27 TO
31 DEGREES, WHILE THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LAG BETWEEN AIR
TEMPERATURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE, ANY SOLAR RADIATION ALONG WITH
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM ROAD TO ABOVE
FREEZING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM STARTS TO INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AS THIS AREA DROPS SOUTHWARD
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
JUST NORTH, THEN ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COMMUTE. SNOW AMOUNTS HERE WILL REALLY BE DETERMINE HOW LONG
IT TAKES FOR THIS SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
MIDDAY TIME PERIOD. THERE IS VERY HIGH BUST POTENTIAL, THAT IS WHY
WE ARE GOING A COATING WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THIS
AREA. ALSO, IF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS LATE AND DOESN'T PHASE WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH UNTIL LATER, THIS COULD SHIFT MOST OF THE
SNOW FURTHER TO THE EAST.
THIS IS A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO
BE MADE AS WE GO THROUGH OUT THE DAY AND SEE HOW ALL THE MOVING
PARTS COME TOGETHER. THE MAIN THOUGHT IS TO PREPARE FOR THE
POTENTIAL WORST-CASE SCENARIOS AND IMPACTS THEN ADJUST AS NEEDED.
AREAS OUTSIDE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...
JUST SOUTH OF THE I-64 THERE LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING ALL RAIN AS YOU WORK
FURTHER SOUTH. AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LOT OF THIS WILL COME DOWN
TO WHEN WE SEE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE. IF THAT IS LATE, AND SOME OF THE NEW DATA CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT AS A POSSIBLE OUTCOME, LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 40S.
OVERNIGHT...
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL SATURATION BELOW THE DGZ.
THIS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS WE GO OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP US
LOCKED INTO A COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN THANKS TO
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SYSTEM THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WE SEE TEMPERATURES TRY TO WARM INTO THE 40S BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO TODAY STORM LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH VERY
LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES, WE RETURN BACK TO COLDER WEATHER WITH HIGH
BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER
WARM-UP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
AS THIS WINTRY MIX SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA,
EXPECT TO SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO TONIGHT. THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, SDF/LEX CAN EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND
SOME MIXED IN RAIN. BWG IS WITHIN THE WARMER SEGMENT OF THE SYSTEM
YIELDING THEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO
TODAY AND TEMPERATURES DROP, LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA. A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
SDF/BWG/LEX/RGA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (01Z-08Z) AS TEMPERATURES
COOL AND WE HOLD ONTO A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WE APPROACH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SYSTEM, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AND
WITH A NNE COMPONENT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ030-
034-035-040-041-049.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
KYZ031>033-036-037-042-043.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ076-
084-090-091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
INZ077>079-092.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CAL
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