046
FXUS63 KLMK 040635
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
135 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* BAND OF SNOW EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. 1 TO 2" OF SNOW POSSIBLE
NORTH OF I-64. LESS THAN 1" EXPECTED ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
* IMPACT COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE.
LINGERING SLICK SPOTS ARE LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
* LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BECOME A CONCERN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY AND DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN A FEW
DEGREES IN THE LAST HOUR. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG TO THIN OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THOUGH, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. AT TIMES, SNOW WILL MIX IN. ON THE TAIL END OF THE
PRECIP, FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE LOSE ICE ALOFT. THIS
WILL BRING PATCHY SLICK SPOTS TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS TO THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE.
FOR THIS REASON, AN SPS HAS BEEN RE-ISSUED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. THIS MAY BE EXTENDED IN THE MORNING, BUT WILL
MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE RE-ISSUANCE.
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...
PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND AREAS ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER, LEAVING A SWATCH OF 0.5 - 3.5 INCHES OF SNOW. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ALONG I-64. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL,
MORE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN. ADDITIONALLY, WE ARE LOSING ICE
ALOFT, WHICH IS TRANSITIONING THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIP TO MIST OR
DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN TRIMMED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY, BUT
CONTINUES OVER THE BLUEGRASS. THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY BE EXPIRED
EARLY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE OVERACHIEVED TODAY AND WARMED INTO THE 35 TO 45
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. GETTING SOME DECENT MELTING OF THE
SNOWPACK FROM THIS, BUT DO HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT RE-FREEZING TONIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES DROP AGAIN. SOMETHING WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THROUGH
THE EVENING. SEEING THE BRIEFLY MILD TEMPERATURES WET BULB DOWN
TO FREEZING WHERE SNOW HAS BEGAN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE NORTHERN SNOW BAND SLOWLY PICK UP IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS, AND IT IS PRETTY MUCH GOING TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA FROM NOW THROUGH 5 OR 6 PM, PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS, AND THEN START TO EXIT THE AROUND 7 OR 8 PM EST.
THIS IS WHEN THE BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW BAND ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. AREA WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING SNOW
ONGOING IN SCOTTSBURG, WHERE A DECENT W TO E ORIENTED BAND HAS SET
UP. STILL LIKE THE 1 TO 2" AMOUNTS UP IN THAT AREA. FARTHER SOUTH,
ACROSS THE MORE IMPACT BASED PORTION OF THE ADVISORY (I-64 CORRIDOR)
IT APPEARS MOST FOLKS WILL GET A MORE SW TO NE ORIENTED BAND WHICH
WILL BE MORE QUICK HITTING, BUT LIKELY BRIEFLY MODERATE RATES. SO,
THE LESSER AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD IN THAT AREA (LESS THAN 1") BUT TIMING
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE IS STILL THE BIGGEST CONCERN. DID DECIDE
TO ADD SPENCER, ANDERSON, AND JESSAMINE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY AS
IT APPEARS THE BAND COULD CLIP THOSE COUNTIES AS WELL WITH SOME
SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS.
THE NEXT PROBLEM, AND ONE THAT IS OF PRETTY BIG CONCERN BUT OVERALL
PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE, DEALS WITH THE THREAT OF LINGERING FREEZING
DRIZZLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASICALLY, AS THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
PASSES AND OUR EVENING SNOW BAND ENDS, WE LOSE ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT
THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DEEP SATURATION. TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT WE ONLY SATURATE UP INTO -5 TO -7 C AIR AS WE GO INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. GET PRETTY WORRIED ABOUT THE INTRODUCTION OF ICE CRYSTALS
SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW WITH ONLY -5C SATURATION SO THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THIS TWO-PROGNED SEMI-PHASED SYSTEM
CONTRIBUTES ITS MOISTURE. THE OTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR WITH THIS
SETUP IS THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
AND WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE 20S WHICH IS WHEN YOU MIGHT BE ABLE TO
GET A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST OVERLAP OF TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS, BUT NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE CUMBERLAND
(WHERE TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING). HERE, WE'RE GOING TO HIT A
GLAZE OF ICE A LITTLE HARDER IN THE MESSAGING WITH AN SPS AND AN
ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED IF
ROADS ARE IMPACTED AHEAD OF THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. ALSO WORRIED
ABOUT A GLAZE OF ICE UP IN THE ADVISORY AREA AS WELL, BUT THE
STRATEGY WILL BE TO SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN EXPAND THE EXISTING ADVISORY IF WE ARE GETTING SLICK SPOTS FROM
SOME -FZDZ. DON'T REALLY HAVE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
AROUND 03-06Z ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR, AND JUST NOT SURE HOW LONG
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECIPITATE BEYOND THAT.
TRICKY SITUATION AND JUST ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS COMPLICATED
SYSTEM.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR IS THAT YOU COULD GET A BIT OF SLEET ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF SATURATION WITH THIS SNOW BAND AS LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR IS OVERCOME. EXPECT IT WOULD BE PRETTY SHORT-LIVED, BUT JUST
ANOTHER REASON WHY THE IMPACT BASED ADVISORY ISN'T A HORRIBLE IDEA
FOR THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING A DRYING TREND
ACROSS OUR EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LETS GO SLOWLY. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE ONLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. MAY GET
CLOSE TO FREEZING NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKING FOR A COLD AND DRY PATTERN PASSING THROUGH MID WEEK INTO THE
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. WE'LL KEEP DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE, WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOOKING
FOR COLD CONDITIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME THURSDAY AM WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE 5 TO
15 ABOVE RANGE, SO BUNDLE UP AGAIN FOR THE THURSDAY AM COMMUTE.
AFTER THE COLD START ON THURSDAY MORNING, HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE AS STEADY SW
WINDS START TO TAKE HOLD.
FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...
FOCUS SHIFTS UPSTREAM TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SE THROUGH THE NW
FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY. WE'LL GET NOTABLE "WARM" ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY AND TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOW AND MID
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
CONFIDENCE ISN'T ALL THAT HIGH ON WHERE THE BEST PLACEMENT FOR
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR, BUT RIGHT NOW OUR NE CWA LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY. GIVE HOW MILD IT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
SHOWERS, EXPECT WE COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX UNTIL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND WE SWITCH TO PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME DATA STILL SUPPORTS SHOWERS MISSING OUR AREA TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THIS CYCLE.
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEK. WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH
THE FLOW ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE YET FOR
THIS ONE. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL LOOK BY TUESDAY,
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
OVERALL, THIS STRETCH LOOK MILDER WITH TEMPS WARMING FROM THE 30S ON
SATURDAY TO THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
AREAS OF FOG, MIST AND DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP CAUSING SOME FZ DRIZZLE BUT WILL
DEPEND WHEN TEMPERATURES AT A FEW OF OUR TAF SITE FALL BELOW
FREEZING. WE'VE ALREADY SEEN IT FOR LEX/SDF.
TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE BEDIM MVFR AND VFR WITH THE VFR CLEARING
TAKING PLACE TO THE NORTH DURING HE DAY AS LINGERING LOW CLOUDS HANG
AROUND. SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...SRW
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BTN
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