773
FXUS63 KLMK 041817
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO
ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES TO REFREEZE AND PRODUCE BLACK ICE
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
* MAINLY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
* WARM-UP INTO THE 40S BY FRIDAY WITH A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
COULD BRING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW FOR
PARTS OF THE BLUEGRASS ON FRIDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WET,
UNTREATED ROADS TO REFREEZE AS TEMPERATURE CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE
20S. PER THE KY MESONET, TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING IN THE LOW 30S
WITH MOST AREAS NORTH AND ALONG THE PARKWAYS AS AREAS TOWARDS THE
SOUTH WERE STILL ABOVE FREEZING. WHILE THERE WAS SOME CONCERN FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE, WE HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH OF THAT REPORTED BUT WE DO
HAVE SOME MIST AND FOG BEING REPORTS. SURFACES THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE SOME BLACK ICE TOWARDS MORNING WILL BE ELEVATED
SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND ANY UNTREATED SNOW COVER
SURFACES.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA,
LINGER LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH HIGH RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO MID 20S
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH
WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING BUT STILL BE IN THE MID 30S. IT WILL ALSO
FEEL BLUSTERY WITH A FAIRLY STEADY NORTHERLY WIND BETWEEN 10-15 MPH,
CREATING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH
TODAY INTO TOMORROW. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WE CAN CLEAR
WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET BY THURSDAY MORNING.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURE IN THE TEENS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE WEATHER
DRY FOR TOMORROW. WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, CAA
WILL CONTINUE KEEPING LINGERING CLOUDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL HE COLDER THAN TODAY WITH MORE
LOCATIONS STAYING BELOW 30 UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 407 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
OUR PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT FEATURES STRONG RIDING ACROSS THE WEST
AND TROUGHINESS ALONG THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE OHIO VALLEY
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL WORK FROM THE NW TO THE SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLY DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG WAA AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED 450
ACROSS SOUTHERN KY ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM, TREND CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BEST CHANCES
(30-40 PERCENT_ ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-
75 CORRIDOR. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS FRIDAY
MORNING AND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. CURRENT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THIS WILL BE AN IMPACTFUL EVENT BUT IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, WE REMAIN UNDER THE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT.
IT'S POSSIBLE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY BUT
CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE FRIDAY SYSTEM
AND THIS BRINGS EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE WEEKEND DRY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW/MID 30S FOR THE NORTHERN CWA AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WAA AHEAD THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY INTO THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW POSSIBLE 50S.
FINALLY LOOKS LIKE WE BREAK OUR VERY COLD STREAK OF WEATHER EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE DAYS SEEING 40S AND EVEN 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA IS BRINGING A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL, EXPECT A TREND BACK TOWARD MVFR
CEILINGS AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE
CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE MORE INTO AN LOW MVFR RANGE
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SDF WHERE HIGHER END MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD. DO EXPECT A STEADY N WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHTER TOWARD MORNING. SHOULD SEE
A RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BJS
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