784
FXUS63 KLMK 051713
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1213 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST IN AND
NORTHEAST KY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS LAKE-ENHANCED BANDS DROP ACROSS THE REGION.
* THE WEEKEND STARTS COLD, BUT WILL TREND MILDER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION (RAIN) IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW A VARIETY OF WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. EARLIER, WE HAD SKIES CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES
DROPPED TO WELL BELOW ZERO UP THERE AT CYNTHIANA, WHERE THEY ARE
STILL -5F AT THIS HOUR. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN
THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWER 20S DOWN IN THE BOWLING GREEN AREA.
A POCKET OF CLEAR SKIES WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WK/BG PARKWAYS FROM E-
TOWN UP TO LEXINGTON. TO THE NORTH, A LOW STRATUS DECK HAS INVADED
FROM THE NORTH AND THAT STATUS DECK IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
REDUCING VISIBILITIES. EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS. SO FAR, NO REAL IMPACTS HAVE BEEN SEEN ON AREA WEBCAMS OR
TRAFFIC INTELLIGENCE. DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO ADD SNOW
FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN IN AND PARTS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL KY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
IT IS A COLD MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN, THOUGH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES VARIES BETWEEN AREAS WHICH
CONTINUE TO HAVE STRATUS AND AREAS WHICH HAVE CLEARED OUT. IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST, TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW-TO-MID
20S. IN CONTRAST, LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SKIES CLEAR HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN
BELOW ZERO AS OF 07Z. THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING, WE'LL BE
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. SO FAR THIS MORNING, ANY FOG BANKS HAVE LARGELY
BEEN CONCENTRATED IN LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER, SO WE'VE
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG MENTION IN RIVER VALLEYS WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED. STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS MORNING, LIKELY LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES IF
SKIES CLEAR BEFORE SUNRISE.
TODAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND VORT LOBE IS EXPECTED TO DESCEND
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND DECREASE IN
STRENGTH, ALLOWING A SFC FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO SAG TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GREATER MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, WITH AREAS THAT
CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING SEEING CLOUDS INCREASE BY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL TRY
TO MOVE ACROSS INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING; HOWEVER,
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW CHANCES IN OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD LATER TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID-TO-UPPER 20S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 TO THE
LOW-TO-MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WHICH
IS JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING WILL SINK ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO DROP FROM
NW TO SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING AND MOISTURE BUILDING DOWN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT AS THIS MORNING, WITH
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS IS TYPICAL FOR CLIPPER SYSTEMS,
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED; HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR AN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE ARE TWO SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM: FIRST, HOW
FAR SOUTHWEST CAN IT DIG INTO THE UPPER RIDGE AND SECOND, WHAT
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE SUPPORTED. ON THE FIRST POINT, THERE IS
STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE, WITH THE HRRR BEING
FARTHER TO THE NE WHILE THE NAM 3KM AND RRFS SOLUTIONS DIG MORE TO
THE SW. IN GENERAL, THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AS YOU GO
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MADISON, IN TO MOUNT VERNON, KY. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE CONCERNED, MOST HI-RES SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT
OF AN ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER ALOFT ON THE SW EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA DUE TO A LACK OF BETTER SATURATION, WITH AREAS FARTHER TO THE
NE SEEING THE ENTIRE COLUMN FALL BELOW FREEZING ONCE IT SATURATES.
AS A RESULT, WOULD EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION, WITH SNOW
MORE LIKELY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN TIME WINDOW FOR THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MID-MORNING FRIDAY AND MID-
AFTERNOON, WITH THE SFC FRONT CLEARING TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY EVENING.
GIVEN THE LIMITED DURATION OF THIS EVENT AND MARGINAL THERMAL
PROFILES, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 1 INCH ARE FAIRLY UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCES WOULD BE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN AND NORTHERN KY BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. SPEAKING OF THE MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILES, AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN KY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR MAY APPROACH 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH, SO THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A VARIATION IN WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
TUMBLING FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN IN
WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS. A SECONDARY FRONT
COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW AS FEEDER BANDS DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THESE BANDS SHOULDN'T BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT, AS THEY SHOULD QUICKLY PASS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA; HOWEVER, WITH CRASHING TEMPERATURES, EVEN LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD CAUSE SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
OVER THE WEEKEND, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLES
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH NW FLOW IN THE MID- AND UPPER-
TROPOSPHERE INITIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SLIDING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED AND SLOWED BY A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO OVER
THE WEEKEND, AND IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PROVIDE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FULLY AMPLIFYING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, A FAVORABLE SURFACE PATTERN FOR ONE MORE
INTRUSION OF CP AIR WILL SET UP AS 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE MIDWEST. FOR MOST OF THE AREA, SATURDAY SHOULD BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, THOUGH THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW
PERSISTENT THE STREAMER BAND OF LLVL MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS,
AND WHERE IT ULTIMATELY SETS UP. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
A MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE DESCENDING WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL BRING ONE MORE CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE REGION,
THOUGH THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS KEEPS PRECIPITATION JUST NE OF
THE AREA. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION IF THE
GUIDANCE TRENDS FARTHER SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN THE PROCESS
OF TEMPERATURES WARMING ACROSS THE REGION; HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A
SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND
WARMER TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN.
THE WARMING TREND IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLIMB COULD BE MODIFIED DEPENDING
ON HOW LONG SNOW COVER PERSISTS. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE IS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
CORRECT THINKING AS SNOW DEPTH APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION, SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY, ALLOWING FOR MORE WARM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WHILE MONDAY
AND MOST OF TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME, BY THE
LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. ECMWF ENSEMBLE P-TYPE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING RAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD KICK OFF A MORE ACTIVE STRETCH
OF WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK, WHICH SHOWS A RELATIVE MAXIMA IN CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
STILL SEEING SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EARLIER SNOW FLURRIES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CIGS RISING TO VFR AFTER 05/21Z OR SO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING. CIGS
LOOK TO REMAIN VFR BUT SHOULD START TO DROP BACK TOWARD MVFR LEVELS
AFTER 06/09Z OR SO. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES MAY REACH SDF/LEX/HNB
BY 06/12Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM....CSG
AVIATION.....MJ
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