757
FXUS63 KLMK 052010
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA.
* ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LAKE-
ENHANCED BANDS DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
* WEEKEND WILL START OFF COLD, BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARMING TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF RAIN, ARRIVES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REALLY STRUGGLED WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS ARE
NOT RESOLVING THE AMOUNT OF SNOW/ICE PACK THAT WE HAVE ON THE
GROUND. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20 ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST, WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW, HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. IN THE I-65
CORRIDOR, TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S WITH MID-UPPER 20S DOWN
IN THE BOWLING GREEN AREA, SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SNOW/ICE PACK.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED, AND TEMPS MAY RISE 1-2 DEGREES OR SO BEFORE FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, COMBINED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY, WE'LL SEE TEMPS DROP BACK INTO
THE TEENS, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOW US RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
BY MORNING.
MOVING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY, AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE OVERALL LIMITED, FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL ALLOW A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE A
BIT OF SPREAD, BUT THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SALEM,
INDIANA TO MOUNT VERNON, KENTUCKY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ AND COLD
PROFILE FOR SNOW MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MADISON, IN TO ROUGHLY
BEATYVILLE, KY. TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE, SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE WITHIN THE DGZ, AND THERE IS A
WARMER NOSE OF AIR ALOFT THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW. THERE MAY BE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IF THE NEAR
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY THE MODELS IS TOO WARM. TO THE WEST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLAIN RAIN. IN
FACT, THE MODELS DO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE I-165 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST MAY
SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
THIS CLIPPER IS MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD FORWARD MOTION, SO THE
OVERALL DURATION OF SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTS THAT MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A COATING
TO AN INCH OR LESS. SOME ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS, MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SCOTT/HARRISON/NICHOLAS/BOURBON COUNTIES. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SNOW
DURING THE EVENT. THIS INCLUDES MOST AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM MADISON INDIANA SOUTHEAST TO ROUGHLY WINCHESTER, KY. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THERMAL PROFILES WITH FUTURE MODEL DATA. IF
SOLUTIONS TREND A LITTLE COLDER, A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE
ADVISORY AREA COULD BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED JUST WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA TO
CONVEY THE THREAT OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, WE'LL SEE STRONG COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL
SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH OFF
THE GREAT LAKES PROBABLY WILL SEND A FEW FEEDER BANDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND DOWN INTO KENTUCKY. IT IS RATHER
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE
MESOSCALE BANDS WILL SET UP, BUT THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST AREAS EAST OF I-65 WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPS MAY PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
MOVING INTO SATURDAY, WE'LL BE IN A DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. OVERALL SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, BUT SOME SCATTERED SNOW STREAMERS OFF THE
GREAT LAKES COULD BE AROUND THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES
LOOK TO BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT A
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWER 20S OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND MID-
UPPER 20S IN THE I-65 CORRIDOR, WITH LOWER 30S DOWN ACROSS THE I-165
CORRIDOR AND OUR SOUTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.
BY SUNDAY, WE'LL GET INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH EXPECTED TO BE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. DESPITE HAVING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW, I BELIEVE THE NBM WILL BE WAY TOO FAST WITH THE
EVENTUAL WARM UP. THIS IS BECAUSE THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO
MISJUDGE THE EXTENT OF SNOW/ICE PACK ACROSS THE REGION. OUR
SNOW/ICE PACK IS PRETTY THICK, GIVEN OUR WATER EQUIVALENTS OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS IS STILL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. THEREFORE, I SUSPECT
THAT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY TREND DOWNWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT WE WILL SEE OVERALL TEMPERATURES INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SNOWPACK IS NON-EXISTANT. FOR NOW,
WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE
REGION AND MILD SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. AGAIN, GIVEN THE THICK SNOWPACK, RADIATIONAL BUDGETS MAY
TEND TO SEE MOST OF THAT WARM GOING TO MELT SNOW/ICE RATHER THAN
HEAT THE NEAR SURFACE AIR. BLENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 40S NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS WITH MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. OVERALL, THE SOUTHERN AREA FORECAST TEMPS LOOK DECENT, BUT I
HAVE MY DOUBTS ON THE TEMPS NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS. THE KEY HERE IS
THAT WE'LL START SEEING DECENT MELTING ONCE WE GET DEWPOINTS ABOVE
32 WHICH SHOULD BE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE PROBABLY
TOO WARM VIA THE BLEND WHICH SUGGESTS MID-UPPER 50S, IT MAY END UP
BEING 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT. HOWEVER, ACROSS SOUTHERN KY,
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE LIKELY ATTAINABLE.
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THERMAL PROFILES HERE ARE WARM FOR ALL RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE'LL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY, LIKELY MODULATED BY THE RETREATING SNOWPACK. THUS,
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS POSSIBLE HERE WITH
TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
STILL SEEING SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EARLIER SNOW FLURRIES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CIGS RISING TO VFR AFTER 05/21Z OR SO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND CONTINUING. CIGS
LOOK TO REMAIN VFR BUT SHOULD START TO DROP BACK TOWARD MVFR LEVELS
AFTER 06/09Z OR SO. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES MAY REACH SDF/LEX/HNB
BY 06/12Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
KYZ032-033-035>037-041>043-049.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
INZ079.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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