344
FXUS63 KLMK 061146
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA, WHERE AROUND 1 INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
* ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS LAKE-
ENHANCED BANDS DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
* THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF COLD, BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARMING TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF RAIN, ARRIVES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
THIS MORNING, SW FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH IS CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF 08Z.
THIS SW FLOW IS HELPING TO PUSH A BAND OF STRATUS TO THE EAST, WITH
A FEW HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I-65. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY SINCE
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S THIS MORNING.
OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY DIVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST, ENTERING SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN
KY BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE BANDS WITHIN
THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THE MAIN SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL HEAD TOWARD
CINCINNATI AND EASTERN KY, THOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
NOTED ON THE SW FLANK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CURRENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG LOW-TO-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE TRYING
TO ERODE THE COLDER AIR MASS FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. THIS THERMAL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO OUR AREA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING, WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE 00Z AND PRELIMINARY 06Z HI-RES GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT, WITH THE HRRR CONTINUING WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY STORM
TRACK WHILE THE NAM 3KM AND RRFS HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TODAY SHOULD FALL TO
THE EAST OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM SEYMOUR, IN TO MCKEE, KY, WITH
LIMITED AMOUNTS TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE.
IN THE AREAS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TODAY, MAINLY THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KY AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST IN, THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE FAIRLY MARGINAL, WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING WET-BULB TEMPS
ALOFT SURGING OUT AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE KEY TO GETTING
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES, WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO DRAG DOWN COLDER AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS SATURATE INTO THE DGZ.
CROSS-SECTIONS DO SHOW FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL STABILITY AND
NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPV AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES, SUGGESTING THAT
HEAVIER BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. 0Z HREF DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR 1+ INCH OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES (I.E., HARRISON, NICHOLAS, BOURBON, CLARK). WITH
THE LATEST TRENDS IN HI-RES GUIDANCE, SEE NO NEED TO EXPAND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH THE SPS CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING
RAIN. THE MAIN SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE
SFC COLD FRONT, WITH THE MAIN WINDOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED BETWEEN 14-21Z TODAY.
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (E.G., JASPER,
TELL CITY, E-TOWN, CAMPBELLSVILLE, BOWLING GREEN, GLASGOW,
RUSSELLVILLE, ETC.) SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY, WITH THE PRIMARY
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS BEING INCREASING/VEERING WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH COLD FROPA. LOCATIONS WHICH REMAIN DRY TODAY
WILL ALSO HAVE A DECENT SHOT TO WARM INTO THE 40S UNTIL COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES FALLING,
ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. TYPICAL POST-FRONTAL STRATUS SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, A FEW STREAMER BANDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A QUICK
COATING OF SNOW. OUTSIDE OF THESE MORE FOCUSED BANDS, FALLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THE STRATUS LAYER EVENTUALLY
COOLING TO NEAR THE DGZ, SO SCATTERED FLURRIES OUTSIDE OF THE
CONCENTRATED BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME CLEARING, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS STUCK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STREAMER BAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH COLD ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BROADER
FETCH OF LOW STRATUS CLEARING OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON SATURDAY, WITH A NARROWER STREAMER BAND OF MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN CONTINUING TO BRING SOME CLOUDS NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR
LATER INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE 925 MB RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD SUBSIDE,
AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS. AREAS WHICH DO SEE
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WILL BE FORTUNATE, AS TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID-20S, ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREAS WITH
DEEPEST SNOW COVER. IN SOUTHERN KY WHERE SNOW COVER IS LESS
PREVALENT, HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 30S.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY MORNING MAY TEMPER THE AMOUNT OF COOLING. THIS
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
WHICH SHOULD DROP ACROSS OH/WV EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE ARE
STILL A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH SHOW LIGHT QPF (FALLING AS SNOW)
ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION, THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE REMAINS
DRY, SO WE'LL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING AT THIS TIME.
AFTER THAT DISTURBANCE PASSES, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED, HOW QUICKLY WE WARM UP
WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE EXISTING SNOW COVER, WITH MODELS THAT SHOW
DEEPER/MORE EXPANSIVE SNOW COVER TENDING TO BE COLDER THAN THE
MODELS WITH LESS SNOW COVER. WHILE THE MODELS/NBM OVERALL ARE LIKELY
TOO WARM, THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND DURING
THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
OPPORTUNITY TO MELT AWAY SOME OF THE SNOW PACK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. BY TUESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE AROUND JANUARY 14TH.
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
TOWARD THE REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHOULD SET UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT TUESDAY,
WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AT
THIS TIME, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY, CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE P-TYPE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW ALL RAIN, AT LEAST WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION. CURRENT
MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 0.25", WITH REASONABLE
HIGH END (90TH PERCENTILE) RAIN TOTALS AROUND 1".
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
GUIDANCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MODELS TRENDING
TOWARD DEEPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, THOUGH WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THIS IS A TREND OR JUST AN OUTLIER RUN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR LEX/RGA IN THE NEXT
HOUR, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AT ALL FORECAST SITES FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY
VEER FROM S/SW TO SW THIS MORNING, WITH 20+ KT GUSTS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY AFTER 15Z. A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SINK
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 14-20Z, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AT LEX/RGA. SDF, HNB, AND BWG ARE MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
OF THE FRONT BEING A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND THE RETURN OF MVFR
STRATUS. AT LEX/RGA, THE LIKELIHOOD OF IFR VIS FROM SNOW SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW IN ANY MODERATE
SNOW BANDS.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT SEVERAL FORECAST
SITES. STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BY THE END OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY EASING AND VEERING TOWARD THE
NORTH BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ032-033-035>037-041>043-049.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ079.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG
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