319
FXUS63 KLMK 070831
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
331 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COLDER AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST IN AND NORTHEAST KY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
IMPACTS/ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY.
* TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
* ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE
FOR RAIN ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS DESCENDING ACROSS
KENTUCKY, HAVING MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SECONDARY
FRONT, WITH AREAS AROUND CINCINNATI HAVING DROPPED 10 DEGREES IN THE
LAST TWO HOURS. A FEW LIGHT SNOW BANDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT; THOSE SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE
REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED AFTER THESE LAST FEW SNOW BANDS CLEAR THE AREA.
LATER THIS MORNING, COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH
THE ENTIRE CWA, WITH TEMPERATURES TUMBLING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IN AND THE KY BLUEGRASS MAY BE ABLE
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS NEAR
ZERO. MANY AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BY SUNRISE,
WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SW KY BEING THE RELATIVELY MILD SPOTS
IN THE LOW 20S.
STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY, WHICH WILL HELP THINGS FEEL A BIT WARMER AS HIGHS SHOULD ONLY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID-20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN
FOR A STRATOCU FIELD TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES FURTHER IF THERE
IS SUFFICIENT COVERAGE.
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS SHOULD EASE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TONIGHT, CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
WHILE MOISTURE SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE, A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST IN AND NORTHEAST
KY, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WILL ADD A MENTION OF
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY, IN AND THE
NORTHEASTERN KY BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE COLD ONCE AGAIN, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS TO
THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SW. ONGOING CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH COULD AGAIN HELP
THINGS FEEL A BIT MILDER OUTSIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY PRETTY
STRONGLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MID 40S POSSIBLE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN
AND NORTH CENTRAL KY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 30S IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 331 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WILL BE SHIFTING AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST
OF THE US. IT LOOKS LIKE SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE US AS A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO UNDERNEATH FLAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. A POLAR STREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL HELP TO
SPREAD THE UPPER RIDGING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE GET LATER INTO
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WHICH SHOULD START
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED, THIS WARM-UP WILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY
REMAINING SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY SHOULD BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AREA-WIDE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SINCE JANUARY 14TH, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MELT
MUCH OF THE REMAINING SNOW COVER. THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER, WITH MOST GUIDANCE HOLDING OFF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...
THE POLAR STREAM TROUGH REFERENCED ABOVE WILL PUSH AN ELONGATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AS ENERGY FROM THE CUTOFF LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN
FLOW, THIS ENERGY SHOULD RIDE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND APPROACH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP, AND ENSEMBLE P-TYPE DATA CONTINUES TO FAVOR PREDOMINANTLY
RAIN WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
WHILE THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH THE START OF THE MID-WEEK
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON HOW LONG PRECIPITATION
WILL LINGER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS A WIDE RANGE IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WPC 500 MB CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE UNCERTAINTY CENTERS AROUND DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING WHAT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY COMPLEX SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
IN SOME SOLUTIONS, UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
AMPLIFY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, CAUSING THE FRONTAL ZONE/STORM
TRACK TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER. IN OTHER SOLUTIONS, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS NOT AS
AMPLIFIED, WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE INITIAL CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
MOST LIKELY RAIN TOTALS IN ENSEMBLES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.10-
0.25", WITH THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES UNDER 0.50". HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF MINOR HYDRO CONCERNS. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, COMBINED
GEFS AND GEPS QPF GUIDANCE ONLY BEGINS TO APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE
ON OUR TYPICALLY TROUBLESOME RIVERS (GREEN, ROLLING FORK, KENTUCKY)
IN THE TOP 5-10% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SO THE PROBABILITY OF RIVER
FLOODING IN THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND DOWNWARD, THOUGH EXACTLY HOW MUCH OF A SLIDE THEY TAKE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHICH SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN MATERIALIZES. IF SOME OF
THE COOLER SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION, THEN WE'LL NEED TO WATCH
VALENTINE'S DAY WEEKEND FOR THE CHANCE FOR A WINTRY PRECIPITATION
SYSTEM, THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
AREA TERMINALS HAVE TENDED TOWARD VFR CIGS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS;
HOWEVER, AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN
NOW AND 09-10Z THIS MORNING, THEIR WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS, GUSTY NORTH WINDS, AS WELL AS LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. SHORTLY AFTER THIS PASSES, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS A WINDOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SDF/HNB/LEX
COULD SEE SOME MVFR STRATOCU RE-DEVELOP, BUT FOR NOW, WE'LL KEEP
THOSE AT ONLY SCT COVERAGE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG
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