272
FXUS63 KLMK 080532
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1232 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAY BRING SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING.
* TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS BY MID-WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES
ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
ANOTHER COLD AND QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AS MANY SPOTS HAVE
ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SOUTH CENTRAL KY IS STILL HOLDING ONTO
THE UPPER 20S FOR NOW. THEN YOU HAVE THE KY MESONET SITE IN NORTHERN
HARRISON COUNTY KY PUTTING ON A CLINIC ON HOW TO DECOUPLE. THEY
CURRENTLY SIT AT 8 ABOVE. WITH THE DEW POINT CURRENTLY AT 3, THEY
COULD GO A BIT LOWER BEFORE THE BETTER UPPER SKY COVER MOVES IN
AFTER 06Z. EITHER WAY, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS PAST MIDNIGHT.
THE INITIAL WAVE OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND MOSTLY
ABOVE 15K FEET, SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THESE. HOWEVER, AS
WE MOVE TO AROUND SUNRISE AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BETTER CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NE CWA AS AN 8-10 K FOOT
MID DECK DEVELOPS WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP. CURRENT
FORECAST ALREADY HAS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW EAST OF A FRANKFORT
TO RICHMOND, KY LINE, WITH EFFICIENT SNOW RATIOS LIKELY APPROACHING
15:1 IN A COLD AIRMASS. THIS IS A SCENARIO WHERE EVERYTHING THAT
FALLS WILL ACCUMULATE, AND LIKE THE RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF AN INCH TOWARD NICHOLAS COUNTY KY. HI-RES GUIDANCE MOSTLY
KEEPS THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA, SO HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED THERE, BUT LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS/TIME
HEIGHTS DO THINK THAT WE CAN SEE SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS WHERE ALREADY
DRAWN GIVEN THE BETTER SNOW RATIOS AND TEMPS CONDUCIVE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. THE LIMITING FACTORS TO THIS BEING MORE LIKE A FEW
FLURRIES WOULD BE THE DRY AIR BELOW 8 K FEET, AND SATURATION MOSTLY
BELOW THE DGZ. OTHERWISE, RATIOS MIGHT BE MORE LIKE 20:1. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK, AND PLAN TO CONTINUE THE SPS, ALTHOUGH MAY TRIM A TIER
OFF THE WESTERN EDGE OF CURRENT MESSAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL COLD THOUGH COMPARED TO NORMALS
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S
OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION. OUT TOWARD THE I-65 CORRIDOR
TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND THE FREEZING LINE WAS
GENERALLY LOCATED FROM HUNTINGBURG, INDIANA TO BURKESVILLE, KY. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WE'LL SEE HIGHS ON THE DAY IN THE NEXT HOUR WITH TEMPS FALLING A
COUPLE DEGREES BY EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER GUSTY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT, WE'LL SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL EXHIBIT A GRADIENT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION. IN
THE I-65 CORRIDOR, TEMPS WILL COOL TO AROUND 20 WITH LOWER 20S OUT
TOWARD THE I-165 AREA.
ON SUNDAY, UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH, AN AREA OF LOCALIZED MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
LOOKS TO FORCE A NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS KEEP THE SNOWBAND EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE NAM AND
WRF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED MORE WESTWARD WITH THIS BAND IMPACTING
OUR BLUEGRASS REGION. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SOME SORT OF
NARROW SNOWBAND WILL DEVELOP, CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OR
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS BAND REMAINS LOW. FOR NOW, HAVE COORDINATED
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
COVERING THIS EVENT. IF THIS SNOWBAND MOVE THROUGH OUR BLUEGRASS
REGION AN QUICK COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD OCCUR. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SNOW BAND. HOWEVER,
WE HAVE GIVEN OURSELVES A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM HERE AND KEPT THE
STATEMENT AREA AS FAR WEST AS FRANKFORT OVER TO LEXINGTON. HOWEVER,
FEEL THAT BEST PROBABILITIES OF IMPACTFUL SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEXINGTON METRO.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE MID-UPPER 30S OVER IN THE I-65
CORRIDOR. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH
LOWER 40S EXPECTED. AS EXPECTED, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
DOWNWARD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS DEAL WITH HOW MUCH
SNOW/ICE PACK WE STILL HAVE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EXHIBIT YET
ANOTHER GRADIENT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S
OVER THE BLUEGRASS WITH MID-UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. GOOD MELTING WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ON SUNDAY BUT RESIDUAL MELTWATER WILL LIKELY FREEZE
SUNDAY NIGHT YIELDING ADDITIONAL AREAS OF BLACK ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES.
ONE THING THAT WE NEED TO WATCH FOR IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE WARM SURGE COMING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM3K HAS BEEN RATHER
AGGRESSIVE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IN AND
CENTRAL KY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES ARE NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES SUCH THAT A WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR. THE NAM3K IS PRETTY MUCH
ALL ALONE HERE AS THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
ANYTHING. SOMETHING TO WATCH CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING A SHIFT AS
TROUGHING MOVES OFF THE EASTERN US COAST WITH A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE AXIS FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US. WITHIN THIS
PATTERN, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE MUTED WARMUP WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN. HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SOUTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S, PERHAPS TO
NEAR 50 IN SPOTS. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
KY (SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY) WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
TUESDAY SHOULD START OFF SUNNY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS HERE ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE'LL
NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW/ICE WE'LL MELT ON MONDAY. RIGHT NOW,
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE'LL SEE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I-64 WITH
UPPER 50S BETWEEN I-64 AND THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY. SOUTH OF THE
CUMBERLAND PARKWAY, HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S LOOK ATTAINABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE
TUESDAY WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS COMING THROUGH
TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG NORTHERLY BRANCH OF THE JET
MAY KEEP THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM GAINING TOO MUCH LATITUDE
AS IT COMES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REALLY DECREASES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
SPLIT FLOW PATTERNS ARE HANDLED RATHER POORLY BY NUMERICAL MODELS IN
GENERAL. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
ITSELF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE UNCERTAINTIES BASED ON THE TROUGHS ON EACH US COAST. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT SOME SORT OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A FEW PERTURBATIONS MOVING
THROUGH. DEPENDING ON THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY LOCATION, WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME WINTRY CHANCES IN THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD IF
THAT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH. THE OPPOSITE IS ALSO TRUE
THAT IF IT SHIFTS NORTH, MORE RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE IN OUR PICTURE
AS WE HEAD INTO VALENTINE'S DAY WEEKEND.
HIGHS TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 40S/50S FOR WEDNESDAY,
WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-SATURDAY. GENERALLY LOWER
40S IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, WITH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING FROM NW TO
SE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE E AT BETWEEN 5-10 KT
THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME VARIATION BETWEEN
E/NE AND E/SE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THERE WAS ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CONCERN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, IT WOULD
BE LATER THIS MORNING AT LEX AND RGA AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY TRY
TO APPROACH THOSE TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-15Z. MODEL CONSENSUS
GENERALLY KEEPS THIS BAND OF SNOW NE OF THE AREA, BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN CASE THE POSITIONING OF THE BAND IS SLIGHTLY
OFF.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CSG
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