341
FXUS63 KLMK 080843
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
343 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE KY BLUEGRASS
REGION. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
* MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS BY MID-WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD INITIALLY BE RAIN, THOUGH THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
THIS MORNING, NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE WITHIN THE
BROADER NW FLOW PATTERN. MOST CLOUD BASES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 12-15K
FT AT THIS HOUR, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DRY LAYER OF AIR IN
THE LOWEST 10K FT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OR HAVE EVEN
ROSE A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
IN, AND SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN IN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SE LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND IS ORIENTED ALONG THE LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NE (WARMER TO THE SW). THERE IS A SUBTLE
TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING, WHICH IS PROVIDING ENOUGH CROSS-GRADIENT FLOW TO SUPPORT
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, AND IT IS ALONG THIS FGEN AXIS THAT THE
SNOW BAND SHOULD TRANSIT LATER TODAY. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE FGEN AXIS JUST TO THE NE OF OUR SOUTHEAST IN AND KY
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES, WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW REMAINING NE OF OUR
CWA. SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL, WITH DEEPER SATURATION
AND BETTER DGZ SATURATION REMAINING JUST OUTSIDE OF THE KY
BLUEGRASS. ALLOWING FOR SOME ERROR IN THE PLACEMENT OF
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES, WE'VE TRENDED POPS DOWN ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS MORNING, THOUGH WE'LL KEEP A MENTION OF
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT GIVEN 15:1
RATIOS THAT A TRACE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD PUT DOWN A FEW TENTHS
OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS LIKE HARRISON, NICHOLAS, AND BOURBON COUNTY;
HOWEVER, THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY. PLAN TO LET THE SPS
EXPIRE AT 10Z UNLESS THERE'S A SW SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE/OBS.
OTHERWISE, WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST,
OVERALL, MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ON, WE SHOULD SEE
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WARMING.
NEVERTHELESS, THINK WE CAN WARM A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. ACROSS NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN IN, EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 30-35, WHILE AREAS WITH LESS SNOW COVER IN SOUTHERN KY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW-TO-MID 40S.
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS TODAY WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY, FLATTENING OUT AS IT
SPREADS TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE EAST COAST, THOUGH THE NEAREST SFC LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE
NW OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SNOW-
FREE SOUTHERN KY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOWER-PROBABILITY SCENARIO WHICH COULD HAVE
CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS MONDAY MORNING. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE
SHOULD BE MODERATE 850-700 MB MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT, WITH MOISTURE
GRADUALLY SINKING TOWARD THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. SOME
GUIDANCE LIKE THE NAM FEATURES AMPLE MOISTURE, LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
WITH SOUNDINGS BEING MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. ON THE
OTHER HAND, MOST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
HRRR/RAP, ARE NOT NEARLY AS SATURATED, AND ONLY SHOW A FEW CLOUDS
WITHIN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THE CLOUDIER SOLUTIONS WOULD LEAD
TO CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, AND THERE IS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE OVER OUR AREA. WHILE
THIS IS A LESS LIKELY OUTCOME, IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WHICH WILL LOWER
PREDICTABILITY AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE WEEK. SPLIT FLOW
BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE
POLAR JET AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, UPPER RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN CONTROL OVER
OUR AREA, RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY, ALSO BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS
THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COMBINED LIFT
AND MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION, VERY LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND
IN RECENT GUIDANCE FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SINK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ARRIVES, LEADING TO THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AXIS ENDING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. AT THIS TIME, MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR TO AROUND 0.30" ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, OUR
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE SHIFTS IN THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE
REFERENCED ABOVE WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR AREA
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS FAVORED TO AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SHOVING THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD GIVE US AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIMING IS ONLY MEDIUM. LATER IN THE WEEK,
NEW UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE FAVORED TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS, AGAIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US. HERE ARE THE THREE CAMPS OF SOLUTIONS FOR
HOW THE VALENTINE'S DAY TIME PERIOD EVOLVES:
1) FRONT IS HUNG UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY: THIS WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES. FAVORED BY GFS.
2) FRONT IS ABLE TO SINK A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY: WE'D
STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MOISTURE TO GET PRECIPITATION LATER IN
THE WEEK, BUT WITH BETTER COLD AIR IN PLACE, THE PROBABILITY OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE GREATER. FAVORED BY ECMWF (IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT WINTRY P-TYPE PROBABILITIES IN THE EPS HAVE RISEN OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS).
3) FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. END OF THE WEEK IS MOSTLY
IF NOT ALL DRY. FAVORED BY GEM.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN WHICH OF THESE SOLUTIONS OCCURS IS STILL LOW, IN
GENERAL, THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A WARMING TREND FAVORED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR EAST STARTS TO EJECT OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
A FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECAST THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, WITH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING FROM NW TO
SE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE E AT BETWEEN 5-10 KT
THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME VARIATION BETWEEN
E/NE AND E/SE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THERE WAS ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CONCERN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, IT WOULD
BE LATER THIS MORNING AT LEX AND RGA AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY TRY
TO APPROACH THOSE TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-15Z. MODEL CONSENSUS
GENERALLY KEEPS THIS BAND OF SNOW NE OF THE AREA, BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN CASE THE POSITIONING OF THE BAND IS SLIGHTLY
OFF.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG
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