671
FXUS63 KLMK 082023
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS BY MID-WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION SHOULD INITIALLY BE RAIN, THOUGH THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION DOES INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
THIS AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STRETCHING NW TO
SE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
CLOUD BASES 8000 FT AND HIGHER THROUGH TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING IN MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH CENTRAL KY WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 30S, WHILE
COUNTIES ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER COULD SEE MID-40S. EASTERLY WINDS
RANGING 5-10KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT AREAS COULD SEE A BRIEF, PARTIAL CLEARING IN
CLOUDS, BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
NIGHT WILL STAY IN THE 20S FOR THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH LOW 30S IN THE SW. THE REGION WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN DRY,
HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO TOMORROW. WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING AT THIS POINT, THIS COULD
RESULT IN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON TONIGHT.
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TOMORROW, WHICH WILL BRING
A WARM AND DRY PATTERN TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW IN THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SKY COVER SHOULD REMAIN PARTIALLY CLOUDY, WHICH WILL HELP THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE 30 DEGREES. A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING A VERY SHALLOW, LOW-LEVEL AREA OF
SATURATION, HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...
ON TUESDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONTARIO LOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACCELERATING ENE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. A
SPLIT SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH THE POLAR JET BY
WEDNESDAY. AS THESE FEATURES INTERACT, DEEPER MOISTURE IS DRAWN
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER, IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE
SFC COLD FRONT COULD PUSH MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH KY BY THE TIME
DEEPER FORCING AND MOISTURE ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THUS, THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN IN AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL KY MAY STAY TOTALLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MOST LIKELY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 0.10-0.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN KY,
WITH QPF QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTH.
WARM W/SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE
50S AND 60S ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY. EXPECT A
RATHER LARGE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT, PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE LINGERING
SNOW/ICE COVER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-64, WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN KY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG WITH THE HIGH,
COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH COOL NE FLOW IN
PLACE - EXPECT LOWS BELOW FREEZING. THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT - NEXT WEEKEND...
PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY IN A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN. A BAND OF
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH FGEN SNOW ON THE COOL SIDE OF A NW TO SE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. ECMWF EPS PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE
TO FAVOR SNOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER, A DRIER TREND FOR FRIDAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF THE BOUNDARY
ENDS UP JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (AND BEYOND) REMAINS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE, WITH MULTIPLE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS. FOR EXAMPLE, WE COULD MISS OUT ON THE SNOW WITH
A SOMEWHAT DRIER FRIDAY, BUT SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MOST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME WARM, MOIST AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A DEEPER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, ALBEIT WITH A
STEADY LOWERING OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CURRENT CEILINGS AROUND 8 KFT WILL DROP TO 5-6 KFT BY 21-00Z THIS
EVENING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH SUNSET,
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. BKN CIRRUS
AROUND 25 KFT WILL ALSO SPREAD EAST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND WHERE THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD SETS UP. BWG/HNB APPEAR TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT FEW-SCT CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...EBW
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