054
FXUS63 KLMK 091142
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
642 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
* FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
* TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN LIKELY, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KY TUESDAY NIGHT.
* ADDITIONAL SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COUPLE
BANDS OF NW-TO-SE ORIENTED STRATUS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND REGIONAL
CIG OBS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB, WITH MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO
NOTED IN THIS LAYER. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE BANDS OF CLOUDS WILL
BE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THROUGH SUNRISE, AND
THEN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THEY PERSIST TODAY, THEY WOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN BY LIMITING SUNSHINE AND HEATING.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND CENTRAL KY. WE'LL WATCH A MID-LEVEL VORT LOBE
DESCEND FROM THE OZARKS THIS MORNING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THIS
EVENING, WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS
SUPPORTED LIGHT EAST WINDS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO WILL SHIFT
FARTHER TO THE EAST TODAY, WITH A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW LONG CLOUD COVER
LINGERS AS WELL AS THE RESIDUAL IMPACTS OF SNOW COVER. HAVE GONE
WITH A PRETTY STRONG GRADIENT IN HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA, FROM LOW-TO-
MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ALONG THE KY/TN
BORDER.
THERE'S AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR TONIGHT AS SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR BY THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS A SFC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE NW, WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP,
BRINGING MILDER AIR OVER A RELATIVELY COLD (SNOW-COVERED IN SOME
AREAS) GROUND SURFACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A KIND OF HYBRID
ADVECTION/RADIATION FOG EVENT, WITH WINDS INITIALLY BEING LIGHT BUT
INCREASING LATER IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE IN
THE 0Z HREF DATA OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2SM ACROSS A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF THE AREA. FOR THIS FORECAST, WE'LL GO AHEAD AND
ADD PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG MENTION FOR TONIGHT, BUT WON'T COMPLETELY
TANK THE VIS FOR NOW GIVEN ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD REACH THEIR NADIR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
CLIMBING TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOW
30S IN THE NORTHERN CWA TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...
THE SFC COLD FRONT REFERENCED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WARM
RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW US TO REACH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN
NEARLY A MONTH, THOUGH THIS MAY AGAIN BE TEMPERED DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG FOG LINGERS TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS HOW MUCH LINGERING
IMPACT SNOW COVER PLAYS. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S NORTH OF I-64 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
CUMBERLAND PARKWAY. THE MOISTURE THAT COMES WITH THIS FRONT ISN'T
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY RICH; HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH WHERE RAIN
SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP, WITH MOST SOLUTIONS NOW KEEPING AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER COMPLETELY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY, EXPECTED RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO TRENDED
DOWN, AND NOW RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND 0.20" ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK INTO THE TN
VALLEY, WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL TAKE A COUPLE STEPS DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S (NORTH) TO THE LOW 50S (SOUTH) AND LOWS IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, DRY WEATHER IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT - NEXT WEEKEND...
FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE'S A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY THAT SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AND TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE NW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE
MOISTURE SUPPLY DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE; HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM DOES BEAR WATCHING AS MOISTURE WOULD BE OVERRUNNING A COLD
AIR MASS, AND WINTRY P-TYPES WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR VALENTINE'S DAY WEEKEND, FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES A BIT AS
ANOTHER SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN SETS UP WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
EJECTING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE, SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST, WITH LOW
PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING
MILDER RETURN FLOW BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO WARM NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SIGNAL IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN US NEXT
WEEKEND, THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM VARIES
CONSIDERABLY IN MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME, THE GEFS
SUPPORTS A WEAKER, OPEN-WAVE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES FAVOR A MORE WRAPPED-
UP, STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS CLOSER TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
LATTER SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, SO WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
THE BAND OF 6-7K FT STRATUS OVER LEX AND RGA IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR
TO THE EAST, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OBSERVED TO THE WEST OF THIS
BAND. WE'RE STARTING TO SEE PATCHES OF 4-5K FT CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL IN AND WESTERN KY, SO WE'LL KEEP FEW-SCT STRATOCU IN THE
FORECAST LATER TODAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL IMPACT WOULD BE FOG TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SUB-1/2SM VIS MAINLY BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL LLWS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
WE'LL KEEP THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG
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