344
FXUS63 KLMK 260553
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1253 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
SOME COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
* WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY NEARING 60. WHILE RADAR
MOSAICS SHOW PRECIPITATION, GIVE THE DRY LOW LEVELS, MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THIS CONTINUES TO FALL AS VIRGA. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN KY WITH MOST SEEING TD IN THE 30S WITH
LOW 40S WORKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. THIS IS THE
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING.
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KY. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF QPF.
THE COLUMN WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE WITH POPS INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS TOWARDS THE
OHIO WILL TAKE TIME AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL KY. WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WITH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WORKS INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS MAINLY RAIN BUT AS
THIS SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OR PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN INTO THE BLUEGRASS
WITH MID/UPPER 30S ALONG WITH 40S TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWERS WILL START TO END AND PUSH QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW 50S AND SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 30S AND WARMING INTO
THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
FOR SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S, WITH SOME PLACES ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER GETTING
INTO THE 70S. THE NICE WEATHER WON'T LAST FOR LONG AS THE COLD FRONT
OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES PASSES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED TO SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND, GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO TAKE PLACE FOR THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL PASS
BY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWA EXPERIENCING MAINLY RAIN. FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER, A MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE PERIOD OF TIME THAT CONDITIONS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
FREEZING RAIN IS FAIRLY LIMITED, ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS AT
MOST. GUIDANCE BEYOND THIS WAVE IS NOT AS CLEAR, THOUGH MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST WILL CARRY LOWER POPS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY, THE SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS DRASTIC
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD, ALLOWING FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO THE
UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN HAS OCCURRED.
SCATTERED TO SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR WITH LOWERING CLOUD DECKS. FROM 09 - 15Z, SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. SPOTTY SHOWERS END AND LIGHT WINDS EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO
SHIFT OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION NEAR 18-21Z. CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM
WEST TO EAST BEYOND 18Z.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...BKF
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