552
FXUS63 KLMK 260841
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TODAY, PRECIPITATION ENDS BY MIDDAY.
* WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
THIS MORNING, AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION, IT
WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, BRINGING
AN END TO REMAINING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. AT THE SAME
TIME, A LINE OF PRECIPITATION PUSHING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY, AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, WILL ALSO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST AS THEY FADE. SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COMMUNITIES NEAR
MADISON, INDIANA COULD SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES FALLING WITH THIS LINE,
BUT DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, NO ISSUE ARE EXPECTED.
BY MIDDAY, THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WILL
KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, LIMITING
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA,
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIVE
COOLING. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
ON FRIDAY MORNING, WEAK COOLING BEHIND A FRONT THAT WILL HAVE MOVED
THROUGH WILL DROP MORNING TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH CLEAR
SKIES. THOUGH GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE UPPER TO MID LEVELS WILL BE
PRESENT, SOME WEAK RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST WILL PUMP IN
SOME WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A STRONG
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING IN WARMER AIR
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE,
AND SOME WEAK WAA AT THE SURFACE, LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. ON SATURDAY, THE OVERALL
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A FRONT OF COOLER AIR FROM CANADA MOVES
SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE EVENING. DEEPENING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT,
HIGHS MAY BE COOLER IN NORTHERN AREAS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY REACH 70, BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH COOLING OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EVENTUALLY, THIS FRONT SLOWS AND STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND GUIDANCE BEGINS TO INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY. THIS
FRONT DRAPED GENERALLY OVER KY WILL ACT AS A PATHWAY FOR FUTURE
DISTURBANCES. FOR NOW, POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THE FIRST DISTURBANCE
THAT MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER. QPF IS VERY LOW, ONLY UP TO 0.2" IN ISOLATED
AREAS. HOWEVER, THIS STALLED OUT FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHERE ON MONDAY THERE COULD BE A QUICK MOVING LOW WITH
MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
IS SPLIT ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS STALLED FRONT,
SUGGESTING EITHER A RAIN EVENT, OR A MIXED PRECIP EVENT, WITH
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP AT THE
EVENT ONSET. THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND IS
EXPECTED TO LEAVE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS REQUIRES MORE
MONITORING TO NAIL DOWN WHERE THIS FRONT IS SET UP. FOR NOW, KNOW
THAT RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR MONDAY. WAA RETURNS ON TUESDAY
WITH MORE POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AGAIN FOR MID WEEK AS THIS MESSY AND
BUSY WEATHER PATTERN MAY LINGER INTO LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN HAS OCCURRED.
SCATTERED TO SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO MVFR WITH LOWERING CLOUD DECKS. FROM 09 - 15Z, SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. SPOTTY SHOWERS END AND LIGHT WINDS EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO
SHIFT OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION NEAR 18-21Z. CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM
WEST TO EAST BEYOND 18Z.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...BKF
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