181
FXUS63 KLMK 270828
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
328 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
* POTENTIAL WINTRY SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT COULD BRING
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND RAIN
SOUTH OF 64.
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
A MILDLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE,
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHWEST, THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS FUEL WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY FOG,
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST NEAR OHIO COUNTY.
TONIGHT, AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST, LIGHT
WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
SATURDAY, THE SAME OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE, BUT A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO NOSE EAST, UP
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS, BUT LIGHT
WINDS BECOME MORE VARIABLE. UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY,
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN KENTUCKY COULD REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AS THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS SINKING SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
=====SATURDAY EVENING - MONDAY=====
INCREASING CLOUDS MOSTLY AT MID LEVELS WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST TO
EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER, THOUGH
THIS SMALL DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LIFT OR MOISTURE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND LOOKS TO HAVE MAINLY JUST PASSING
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL INDICATE THE PASSING OF A FRONT THAT WILL
STALL OVER THE OHIO RIVER AND TOWARDS CENTRAL-EAST KY OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE OHIO.
SUNDAY MORNING, CLOUDS STICK AROUND WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS. FROM THE STALLED OUT FRONT OVER THE
OHIO, COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL KEEP HIGHS
LOWER THAN IN PLACES CLOSER TO THE TN BORDER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH OF THE OHIO AND UPPER 50S CLOSER TO TN. CLOUDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE THOUGH AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE WEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE WIDELY NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH
AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND NEAR 40
CLOSER TO TN. SOME WAA ADVECTION IN LOWER TO MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT THE
EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE FRONT MOVES TO IS CURRENTLY STILL BEING
DETERMINED. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHAT P-TYPE
WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. RECENT
GUIDANCE IS PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER AND FARTHER TO THE NORTH,
MEANING MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH A WINTRY MIX, AT
LEAST AT THE ONSET, CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. DESPITE THE
RECENT TRENDS, A WINTRY MIX IS STILL EXPECTED, THOUGH PLAIN RAIN IS
MORE LIKELY IN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN THE AREA. QPF REMAINS
LOW WITH AREA-WIDE TOTALS RANGING FROM UNDER 0.1" TO THE SOUTH AND
UP TO 0.5" IN NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE ACCORDING TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT, WITH
LOW 40S NORTH AND LOW 50S IN THE SOUTH.
=====TUESDAY - FRIDAY=====
BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY, THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED THE AREA, THOUGH WITH SOME LEFTOVER ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH BUT STILL REMAINING
CLOSE BY, SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS, WITH RAINY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL IMPROVE ON TUESDAY THOUGH WITH WAA TAKING
OVER THE LOWER LEVELS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE SAME
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AND WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S NORTH AND LOW 70S TO THE
SOUTH. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY DRY OUT ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.
FINALLY BY THURSDAY, ENOUGH ENERGY FROM A LOW FORMING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
BOOSTING HIGHS EVEN MORE, EXPECTING A RANGE OF UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
AREA WIDE. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN FOR
AWHILE ALONG WITH CONSTANT CHANCES OF RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES
CLEAR. THIS HAS LED TO STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING WHICH WILL CAUSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY AT LEX AND RGA. OTHER THAN THE FOG TONIGHT,
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...KDW
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