200
FXUS63 KLMK 280513
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1213 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
* LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
* POTENTIAL WINTRY SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT COULD BRING
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND RAIN SOUTH
OF 64. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD SEE MINOR IMPACTS.
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHILE A MILDLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, ALLOWING FOR WARM AND CALM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE
EAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR FOG TONIGHT, AS
WELL AS LIMIT HOW COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES GET. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, WITH SOME PLACES IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA DROPPING INTO THE HIGH 30S. FOR SATURDAY, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL GET UP INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S, WITH SOME PLACES
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER POTENTIALLY REACHING 70.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RELATIVELY WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT MOVE IN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER, WITH CURRENT
FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 0.10". EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVERHEAD, CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 40S. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON
SUNDAY, WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS
FRONTAL PLACEMENT WILL RESULT IN A DECENT SPREAD OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA, WITH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ONLY GETTING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES RISING INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...
INTERESTING SETUP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG ~1040 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WITH ITS SOUTHERN INFLUENCE EXTENDING INTO OUR
REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED TO OUR
SOUTH ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH A
NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS AROUND 30 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, AND HIGHS AROUND 40 ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 35-40 KNOTS RESPONDS BENEATH A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. THIS WILL CREATE AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THAT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA (THINK I-64 AND NORTHWARD). THE BIGGEST
CONCERN IS THAT THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS WE GET INTO
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, HOWEVER THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING
FACTORS TO POSSIBLE IMPACTS, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A FEW
IMPACTS WOULD JUST A BIT FARTHER NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
FIRST OFF, THE OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MARGINAL,
AND WITH A POSSIBLE WARM NOSE COMING INTO PLAY THANKS TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET RESPONSE, CURRENT FORECAST SNOW RATIOS WOULD ONLY BE
AROUND 5 TO 1. IN ADDITION, WE WILL BE QUITE MILD THIS WEEKEND AHEAD
OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT, SO THINKING THAT ROADWAY/SURFACE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY LAG AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE A GOOD BIT GOING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPS ONLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE
30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR MAKES
CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL ACCUMS A LITTLE LOWER. RATES WOULD BE THE ONE
THING THAT COULD CHANGE THAT, AND WE ALL KNOW THAT RATES COMBINED
WITH A MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE USUALLY RESULTS IN SOME ISSUES. SO,
WON'T RULE OUT THAT AN IMPACT BASED ADVISORY MAY BE NEED FOR
SOMEWHERE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64, BUT AT THIS TIME IT FEELS LIKE
ANY THREAT IS MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THAT CORRIDOR WHERE
A DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF SOME SNOW, A BIT OF SLEET, OR EVEN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SEEMS POSSIBLE. OVERALL, DON'T
THINK IT WILL BE A BIG DEAL, BUT ONE WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON TRENDS AND FACTOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE WARM NOSE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO P-TYPE,
AND AS USUAL, THERE ARE MILDER AND COOLER SOLUTIONS TO NAVIGATE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE CARRYING JUST A GLAZE OF ICE FOR SOME AREAS
NORTH OF I-64 ACROSS SE INDIANA AND FAR NORTHERN KY, BUT AGAIN,
THINK THIS WOULD MAINLY BE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND NOT IMPACTFUL TO
ROADS. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY MINOR IMPACTS FROM A WINTRY MIX
WOULD BE 4 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY MORNING.
BY LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY, EXPECT THAT TEMPS WOULD BE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING, HOWEVER LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
OVERRUNNING CONTINUING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...
AN INCREASINGLY MILD AND AND ACTIVE WEATHER STRETCH WILL THEN SET UP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES EJECT THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND RIDE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO A
WAVERING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION. WE LOOK
TO STAY LARGELY ON THE MILD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. MORE OF
THE LOW AND MID 70S ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEK AS DEEPER SW FLOW TAKES
HOLD OF THE AREA BETWEEN MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND
SE CONUS RIDGING. GIVEN THAT THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY EXTEND BEYOND
THE CURRENT FORECAST RANGE, CONCERN CONTINUES TO GROW FOR POTENTIAL
ROUNDS OF FLOODING AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONGER SURFACE LOWS
PASSING TO OUR NW FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH EACH WAVE, AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SE CONUS
RIDGING AND ITS ABILITY TO HOLD UP PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA AS WELL.
HARD TO IMAGINE WE'LL GET THROUGH THIS HIGHLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITHOUT
AT LEAST A ROUND OR TWO OF SEVERE AND/OR FLASH/RIVER FLOODING
POTENTIAL. IT IS EARLY THOUGH, SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FOR CONTEXT, THE NSSL MACHINE LEARNING SITE HAS OUR AREA IN AT LEAST
5-10% CONTOURS FOR SEVERE WEATHER STARTING THURSDAY 3/5, AND LASTING
THROUGH DAY 14 THURSDAY 3/12. THESE CAN BE OVERDONE IN THE EXTENDED,
BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS POTENTIAL
FOR ANY GIVEN DAY IN THAT STRETCH. ON THE FLOODING SIDE, CPC HAS
OUTLOOK OUR AREA IN A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
FLOODING GOING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE FIRST WEEK, AND SECOND
WEEK OF MARCH. DEPENDING ON HOW THAT ALL PLAYS OUT, RIVER FLOODING
COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY THE LATER IN THAT STRETCH
WE GET.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM NOW AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. CURRENTLY, WINDS OF 5-10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AREA WIDE AS A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH FROM INDIANA AND SETTLES BETWEEN SDF/BWG ORIENTED SW TO NE.
NORTH OF THIS FRONT, LIGHT WINDS OF 4-7 KTS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH AND EAST WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH IN BWG WILL KEEP A LIGHT SW
WIND. SW WINDS RETURN FOR THE WHOLE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS RETURNING NEAR
0Z SATURDAY EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BKF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page