667
FXUS63 KLMK 281132
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
632 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM SUNNY WEATHER WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
* COOLER AIR MOVES IN AS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER CENTRAL KY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN AREAS NORTH OF
I-64.
* POTENTIAL WINTRY SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT COULD BRING
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES NORTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS. THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD SEE MINOR IMPACTS.
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
=====SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING=====
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SW WINDS, MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PASSING US TO THE SOUTH AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
SHORTWAVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOOSTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S CLOSE TO THE TN BORDER, AND LOW TO MID 60S
IN AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SUNNY SKIES TO START BUT CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWN TOMORROW EVENING.
BY AROUND 6-9 PM EST, SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AND LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SW
WINDS. AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH, AS QPF GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY LIGHT, EXPECTING ONLY UP
TO 0.10" IN ISOLATED AREAS.
NONETHELESS, THERE WILL BE CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT THAT BEGIN TO CLEAR
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP AWAY ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THEN.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND STALL OVER SOUTHERN KY. AS A RESULT, SUNDAY MORNING LOWS IN
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WILL BE A FEW EXTRA DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE THE SHIFT IN LIGHT WINDS
AND COOLER AIR LATER ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID
30S NORTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER TO THE MID 40S CLOSER TO THE TN
BORDER. COOLER WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES TO START SUNDAY WILL PREVAIL
AS THIS FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN KY ALLOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
TRAVEL THROUGH AND CREATE SOME POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD, SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN KY NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER. IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS, CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WE'LL LIKELY SEE
A GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID-UPPER 40S OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY. LOW-MID
50S WILL BE SEEN SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS DOWN TO THE KY/TN BORDER
REGION.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEASTERN US. AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KY/NORTHERN TN WILL LIKELY DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 35-
40KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. A MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION WILL ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SCENARIO IS BASICALLY AN ISENTROPIC LIFT
EVENT WITH A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WHICH COULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION HERE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. HOWEVER,
STRENGTH OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT YIELDS
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPES ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE WK/BG
PARKWAYS AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND HOW SEVERE IMPACTS WILL BE.
AS OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, OVERALL THERMAL PROFILES
FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY MARGINAL
ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM ALL THE MODELS DO SHOW A
WARM NOSE LIFTING INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPES NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS. DOWN ALONG THE WK/BG
PARKWAYS, P-TYPE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AND WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE. IT APPEARS THAT A
SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET COULD OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF THE
PARKWAYS RESULTING IN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. FURTHER NORTH UP
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR, SLIGHTLY COLDER PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH SLEET, THOUGH FORECAST SNOW RATIOS
REALLY STAY AROUND 5/6:1. A QUICK COATING TO A HALF OF INCH OF
SNOW/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
NORTHWARD. IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE AND PRECIPITATION RATES. WE'VE SEEN
PLENTY OF TIMES THAT PRECIPITATION RATES CAN OVERCOME MARGINAL NEAR
SURFACE TEMPS. WHILE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK, ROADWAY AND SURFACE PAVEMENT TEMPS MAY END UP BEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER GIVEN THE RECENT WARMTH FROM THIS WEEKEND AND EVEN
INTO THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD MITIGATE IMPACTS TO AN
EXTENT. THE BEST TIME FOR WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE
IN THE 400 AM TO 10 AM EST TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS PERIOD. A IMPACT-BASED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.
MOVING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION AND WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING WHICH WILL LEAD TO LESSER IMPACTS. HOWEVER, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE ENDING. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL FEATURE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURE WITH LOW-MID 40S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF KENTUCKY WITH UPPER 40 TO NEAR 50 DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER
40S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOVING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE, AN INCREASINGLY MILD AND ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL START OFF RATHER ZONAL BUT WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY INTO A TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST TYPE PATTERN. SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SURFACE LOWS MAINLY
TAKING A TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AS THE SE RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. EPISODIC BOUTS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SE RIDGE, AN AXIS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. THE EXTENT EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
LIKELY BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE SE RIDGE.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING TIME, THIS AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY SHIFT EAST. CPC HAS ALREADY COME OUT WITH A MORE AGGRESSIVE
OUTLOOK FOR AREA FOCUSING ON HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF FLOODING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF KY OVER THE NEXT 10-14
DAYS. WITH ANTICIPATED SWITCH TO A TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST PATTERN,
AN INCREASINGLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND NORTHWARD FLOW OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ROUNDS OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY AFTER MID-WEEK
AND BEYOND. OUR CURRENT 7-DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1-2 INCHES IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS. NORTH OF THE
PARKWAYS, 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KTS STILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS
THOUGH WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS
ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY THIS PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL CHANGE DIRECTIONS
DUE TO SW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N MOMENTARILY BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN
NORTHERN AREAS. BWG MAY REMAIN IN SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE. SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT HIGH TO MID LEVELS ROLL IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z
THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
PERIOD, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AGAIN BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON SUNDAY.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BKF
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