285
FXUS63 KLMK 282028
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
328 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
BUT NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED.
* POTENTIAL WINTRY SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT COULD BRING
A MESSY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES NORTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS.
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD SEE MINOR IMPACTS.
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
IT IS A GORGEOUS FEBRUARY DAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKYCOVER, LIGHT
WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. WE HAVE A VERY WEAK, MOISTURE-STRAVED BOUNDARY
SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA, WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THE
LOW 40S ON THE WARM (SOUTHERN) SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, TO THE LOW 20S
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. DESPITE THE WEAK WINDS TODAY, WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MIX DOWN RH VALUES INTO THE LOW 20S FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS,
EVEN SDF IS AT 18% RH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS. YOU DO NOT
SEE THAT VERY OFTEN. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY
TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OZARKS.
FOR TONIGHT, A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, AND WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY SITTING ACROSS THE AREA, SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER, ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL DECK, WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO
PASS THROUGH, SO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAIN QUITE LOW.
VIRGA IS MOST LIKELY, THOUGH SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00-12Z TONIGHT.
BY TOMORROW, THE SFC BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WE'LL REMAIN DRY FOR
TOMORROW, WITH A CONSIDERABLE NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER-40S, THOUGH
OUR WARMEST SPOT COULD BE LAKE CUMBERLAND WITH LOW 60S. A SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TOMORROW WILL SUPPORT A BIT MORE WIND
THAN TODAY, BUT GENERALLY KEEP GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
===== SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY =====
WE'LL BE SITUATED IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN A STRONG SFC HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS
TIME, BUT WILL STILL SUPPORT BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDERNEATH A
PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY,
WITH A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES MOST LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-CENTRAL KY AS A WARM NOSE INTRUDES DUE TO SW
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE WINDS IN THE 850MB LAYER. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY FOR P-TYPES IS THE AREA BETWEEN THE I-64 AND WK/BG
PARKWAY CORRIDORS, WHERE STRENGTH IN THE WARM NOSE WILL DICTATE P-
TYPES. A MESSY MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ALL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
PLAIN RAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, BUT AS
THE WARM NOSE PUSHES INTO THE REGION, WILL CREATE A MESS OF P-TYPES
FOR THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE WARM NOSE,
COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IN SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING RAIN
FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. AS A RESULT, SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE.
ADDITIONALLY, A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SWITCH
OVER, WITH SOUTHERN IN POSSIBLY SEEING A HALF INCH OR SO OF WET,
HEAVY SNOW. GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILES, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE QUITE
LOW, SOMEWHERE AROUND 5:1. GIVEN THE CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP
TYPES, SOME IMPACTS TO MONDAY MORNING COMMUTES ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, SOME FACTORS WORKING IN OUR FAVOR ARE ROAD TEMPERATURES,
WHICH AFTER SOME WARMER DAYS, ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S BY MONDAY AM. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
AS EARLY AS 1-2AM EST MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE MOST IMPACTFUL TIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5-10AM EST. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR TRENDS AND
CONSIDER IF AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
BY MID TO LATE-MORNING, SFC TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING,
EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER PRECIP TO ALL LIQUID FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-40S NORTH OF THE WK/BG
PARKWAYS, TO MID-50S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KY.
===== TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY =====
FOR MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK, MILD AND ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY, THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY INTO A
WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A DEEPER SW FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WHERE
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW AND SUPPORT AN
ACTIVE STRETCH.
WE BEGIN TUESDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS ON RAIN
CHANCES BRIEFLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD. WE DON'T COMPLETELY CLEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES, BUT COULD SEE A MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND MAYBE A BIT MORE DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY
WEDNESDAY.
MOST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY STILL SITUATED ACROSS
THE REGION, IT COULD ACT AS A REINFORCEMENT FOR ON AND OFF SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES. WE MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE BOUNDARY UNTIL IT
LIFTS NORTH ON THURSDAY, BUT BY THEN WE'LL BE DEEP WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT COULD
BRING A STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH HERE BY SATURDAY.
AS DISCUSSION IN THE PRIOR AFD, THE PLACEMENT OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE
WILL DETERMINE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER,
EVENTUALLY THAT RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS, WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE MORE TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS SEEN WELL BETWEEN THE CPC 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY
PRECIP OUTLOOKS, WHERE YOU CAN SEE THAT EASTWARD SHIFT IN ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIP PROBABILITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
SKC AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL SEE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BY THIS
EVENING. A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD EVAPORATE MOST PRECIP
BEFORE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. STILL WENT AHEAD WITH PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THE CHANCE, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE
CIGS LIFT TO HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS BY TOMORROW WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT
OF THE NORTH.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
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