152
FXUS63 KLMK 011124
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
624 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
* POTENTIAL WINTRY SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT COULD BRING A
MESSY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA,
NORTH-CENTRAL, AND EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE ARE POSSIBLE.
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH STEADY RAIN FAVORED IN OUR NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES.
* HIGHS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE WK/BG PARKWAY. TO THE NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY, WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT, WINDS
ARE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MID-UPPER 40S BEING REPORTED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND FAR
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WERE STILL THE
IN LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE. AREA RADARS SHOW A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IN, MAINLY
JUST NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. A SECOND AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT
OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH IS KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF VIRGA. HOWEVER, A FEW SPOTS HAVE PICKED UP SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH LOWER-MID 40S OVER MUCH OF KENTUCKY.
FOR TODAY, THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA, A RATHER STRONG GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF KENTUCKY NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS, HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH
SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY.
MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT SOME COLD/DRY AIR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION, AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN TN AND
WESTERN KY GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
BUILDUP IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS WESTERN KY EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KY TOWARD DAWN
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO DAYTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY COLD FLOW COMBINED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN INVERSION ALOFT RESULTING IN A MIXED WINTRY
SCENARIO FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MONDAY MORNING.
DESPITE BEING 24-30 HOURS OUT FROM THIS EVENT, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
QUITE THE SPREAD IN THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. IN GENERAL, THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY HAWESVILLE TO ELIZABETHTOWN OVER TO NEAR RICHMOND.
TO THE SOUTH OF THAT LINE, LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A COLD RAIN.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP HERE WITH THE LOWER-RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING MORE SATURATED LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WITH A STRONGER
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND IN PARTICULAR A STRONGER WARM NOSE,
RESULTING IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION STAYING MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE I-
64 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONGER INFLUX OF DRY/COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR INTO THE
REGION PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION ARRIVING. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONGER
WETBULBING EFFECT RESULTING IN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION. THE KEY/CRUX OF THIS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
COLD/DRY AIR WILL ADVECT IN AND HOW STRONG WILL THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE. TAKING ALL THE MODEL DATA INTO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
HERE, INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OFF AS LIGHT RAIN, BUT
AS STRONGER LIFT DEVELOPS AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVIER, A
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND DOWN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL KY. AGAIN, DEPENDING ON THE WARM NOSE STRENGTH, SOME
FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AS WELL, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WINTRY MIX CHANGEOVER LINE. THE BEST CHANCES OF A WET/SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION STILL LOOK TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO
LOUISVILLE OVER TOWARD THE LEXINGTON AREA. JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THOSE LOCATIONS, A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE.
SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COATING TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WITH SOME LIGHT ICING ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENT ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER-MID 50S
ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE RECENT WARMTH. THOSE TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO FALL A BIT, BUT WILL LAG BEHIND AIR TEMPERATURES. ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S WHICH MAY MITIGATE
IMPACTS. HOWEVER, HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION RATES CAN EASILY
OVERCOME THOSE MILDER ROAD TEMPS. THE MOST IMPACTFUL TIME FOR
WINTRY WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 400-1000 AM EST MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN WINTRY P-TYPE AND EVEN
THE SPREAD IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES, NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND THIS WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW PLAIN RAIN ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TO THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SOUTH OF THE WK/BG
PARKWAYS, HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TO THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER KENTUCKY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
===== TUESDAY - THURSDAY =====
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WON'T CHANGE MUCH,
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DRAPED OVER THE AREA ALOFT AND A SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY DRIFTING TO OUR NORTH. THE WHOLE AREA WILL BE SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY BY MIDDAY, AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH SITUATED OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR
NORTH TO ACT AS A ROADWAY FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA IN LOW TO MID
LEVELS PROVIDING IMPULSES OF MOISTURE. A BAND OF RAIN ORIENTED WEST
TO EAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL RATES MAY SETTLE OVER OUR
NORTHERN AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. WITH THIS BAND OF EASTWARD MOVING STEADY RAIN OR RAIN
SHOWERS SETTLING OVER THE SAME AREAS, SOME DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE RANGE OF 0.5" -
1.0" WITH ALL DAY RAIN CHANCES. TOTAL QPF IS LOWER IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KY, WITH RECENT GUIDANCE KEEPING RAINFALL TOTALS
BELOW 0.25" IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE BLUEGRASS. FOR ALL AREAS THOUGH,
SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE DAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STAYS
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 IN
SOUTHERN AREAS.
WAA WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL, ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, BEING MORE PREVALENT IN
NORTHERN AREAS, WITH SOUTHERN PLACES SOUTH OF THE BLUEGRASS
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH, A WEAK TROUGH
ORIGINALLY FORMING OFF THE US WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY, REINFORCING OUR SW FLOW AT MID AND SURFACE LEVELS.
GUIDANCE HERE STARTS TO SPLIT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS
INCOMING TROUGH. DEPENDING ON ITS STRENGTH, IT COULD FORCE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BUT IF THE TROUGH IS TOO WEAK, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL STICK AROUND FOR ANOTHER DAY, PROVIDING MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
PASSING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL BEING DETERMINED,
WITH GUIDANCE SPLIT OVER A WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SETUP WITH POSSIBLE
STORMS, OR A GENERALLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH NOT MOVING IN
UNTIL LATER THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
MUCH WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S. IN FACT, SW FLOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE WELL ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, CONTINUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A
ROADWAY FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVEL THROUGH OUR AREA AND
PROVIDE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN. GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FAVORED
AT THE SURFACE, MEANING OUR HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFDS, THE
CPC HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE INDICATING A SOUTHEAST RIDGE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EVEN THROUGH THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK. IN
ADDITION WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES, SPRING-LIKE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE
HERE TO STAY FOR AWHILE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. EARLIER SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 8-10KTS. LATER
TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST, LIKELY AFTER 02/07-08Z. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BWG AND
RGA. AT HNB/SDF/LEX, INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OFF AS
RAIN, BUT AS INTENSITY PICKS UP, A SWITCH TO A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AFTER 02/10Z.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....BKF
AVIATION.....MJ
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