742
FXUS63 KLMK 020525
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1225 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* POTENTIAL WINTRY SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT COULD BRING A
MESSY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA,
NORTH-CENTRAL, AND EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE ARE POSSIBLE.
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH STEADY RAIN FAVORED IN OUR NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES.
* HIGHS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY.
COLD NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION
TO DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AFTER
VIEWING MUCH OF THE EARLY 00Z GUIDANCE, FEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO JUSTIFY AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
FEEL THAT BEST CHANCES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR ALONG OUR BORDER WITH ILN/IND. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ADVISORY IS STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN, BUT USING
THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE ADVISORY DOWN
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. THIS ADVISORY DOES NOT INCLUDE
THE LOUISVILLE/JEFFERSON METRO NOR DOES IT INCLUDE THE LEXINGTON
METRO. WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA, A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WITH
A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A COATING
TO A SLUSHY INCH ARE POSSIBLE. ALONG OUR BORDER COUNTIES WITH
ILN/IND, CAN'T RULE OUT A LITTLE OVER AN INCH...MAYBE AN ISOLATED 2
INCH TOTAL HERE OR THERE. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON
ELEVATED OBJECTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT AND SEE
HOW THINGS LOOK EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO SEE IF THE ADVISORY IS
NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER SOUTH. RIGHT NOW, I THINK THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF ADJUSTING SOUTHWARD MAY BE IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION LOW-
LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S. HOWEVER, WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE
WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPS UP A LITTLE BIT OVER THERE, BUT A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURE MAY HOLD OVERNIGHT FROM OLDHAM COUNTY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
FAYETTE COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
===== REST OF TODAY =====
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION TODAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FROM THE KY MESONET,
THERE IS A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH MID 40S TO THE NORTH, AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS
IN PART TO THE SFC BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
===== MESSY WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT =====
AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WE WILL BE
LOCATED BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH, AND AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST. OUR SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY TO THE SFC HIGH, CONTINUING TO
PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL DRY AND COLD ADVECTION FLOW, BUT THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL INTRODUCE AN 850MB JET OVER WESTERN TN AND KY,
BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COLD SFC AIR IN THE FORM
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. WE'LL END UP SEEING PRECIPITATION MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. THIS COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WAA
OVERRUNNING SFC CAA WILL SUPPORT A WARM NOSE ALOFT, LEADING TO A
MESSY MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. SOUTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS, SFC TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, LEADING TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THAT
AREA RECEIVING JUST PLAIN COLD RAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
THERE REMAINS SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
REGARDS TO SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING P-TYPES, ACCUMULATIONS, AND
POSSIBLE IMPACTS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WINTRY MIX SHIFTED JUST A
TICK NORTH TODAY, AND ROUGHLY WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM TELL CITY
TO BARDSTOWN OVER TO RICHMOND. SOUTH OF THAT LINE, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST PLAIN COLD RAIN. WHILE THERE APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE,
THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL COLD,
DRY AIR THAT FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS IS
SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE IT WILL PLAY INTO WINTRY PRECIP AMOUNTS BY
WETBULBING. IF WE END UP WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR, STRONGER
WETBULBING WOULD TAKE PLACE AND IN TURN RESULT IN HIGHER SNOW AND
ICE AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, IF SFC DEWPOINTS DO NOT GET AS LOW AS THE HRRR
SUGGESTS, THEN PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
WE'LL CERTAINLY HAVE SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO WORK THROUGH
INITIALLY, BUT ONCE WE DO SO, PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL AS A WET,
SLUSHY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, WITH MORE OF A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
A COATING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.01" OF ICE IS
GENERALLY 40-50% ALONG I-64, AND UP TO 70% NEAR MADISON, IN. THE
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.1" OF ICE FALLS OFF, WITH PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 20%. AS FOR SNOW PROBS, THE CHANCE FOR A COATING IS SIMILAR,
WITH 40-50% CHANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
===== POSSIBLE IMPACTS =====
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN,
BUT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH WE COULD SEE THEM. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER, ANY SNOW WILL BE SLUSHY AND WET DUE TO SNOW RATIOS AROUND
5:1, BUT WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TOO, COULD SEE SOME SLICK
SPOTS, PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ONE FACTOR WORKING IN
OUR FAVOR WILL BE ROAD TEMPS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOW 40S BY TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT IMPACTS
IN SOME REGARD. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS, ANY
HEAVIER PRECIP RATES COULD EASILY OVERCOME THOSE WARMER SFC TEMPS
AND CAUSE ISSUES. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE TIMING, WITH THE
EXPECTED PEAK OF WINTRY PRECIP STILL BETWEEN 4-10AM AND SURROUNDING
THE MORNING COMMUTING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, ANY IMPACTS SEEN IN THE
MORNING WILL BE RATHER BRIEF AS SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY
LATE MORNING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE FORECAST
AND POTENTIAL BRIEF IMPACTS, DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. AN IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
CERTAINLY NOT OFF THE TABLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS IS JUST NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
===== TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY =====
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY TUESDAY, WITH A SFC
BOUNDARY SHIFTING NORTH AND POTENTIALLY STALLING AGAIN ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JETTING OUT AHEAD OF A SFC
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WE'LL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS. BREEZY SSW WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WILL ADD TO THE WAA REGIME, AND COULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 60S, AND PERHAPS SOME LOW 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THAT SFC
BOUNDARY WILL WOBBLE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL, SO RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THEN TOO. SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY, THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WAA WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER ON
WEDNESDAY THOUGH, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD START TO THE DAY
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S, AND SFC TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE
70S BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND NEAR 60, SO THERE'S A CHANCE WE COULD REALIZE SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY.
===== THURSDAY - FRIDAY =====
THE GRADUAL WARM UP CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
FLOW AMPLIFIES AND TAKES ON A WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE SPLIT
ACROSS THE US. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A DEEP SW ORIENTATION OF
FLOW THROUGH THE MIDWEST, WHERE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THROUGH AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WARMING AND PRECIP CHANCES. ADDING TO
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH,
WHICH WILL PROVIDE BROAD RETURN FLOW INTO THE EASTERN US, ADDING A
DEEPER MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE
WEEK. THURSDAY WILL START OFF WITH VERY MILD MORNING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S, WHICH COULD CHALLENGE SOME DAILY WARM MIN
TEMPS, ESPECIALLY FOR SDF AND LEX. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S BY
THE AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER, WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 80, THOUGH LIKELY
NOT WARM ENOUGH TO CHALLENGE ANY DAILY MAX TEMP RECORDS. ON AND OFF
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL START OFF AS VFR BUT WILL DECREASE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE LATER THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST FROM
MISSOURI. LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, BUT A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ONLY BWG IS EXPECTED TO SEE PLAIN RAIN
WITH THIS EVENT. BEST TIME FOR WINTRY PRECIP AT HNB/SDF/LEX WILL BE
BETWEEN 02/09-15Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ031>037-042-043.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
INZ076>079-092.
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM....CJP
AVIATION.....MJ
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