655
FXUS63 KLMK 020803
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SOME MINOR IMPACTS THE
MORNING COMMUTE ARE POSSIBLE.
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH STEADY RAIN FAVORED IN OUR NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES.
* WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK, GROWING
INCREASINGLY WARMER BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER-MID 30S OVER
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION. ELSEWHERE,
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WITH LOWER 40S LOCATED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY
REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS, PRECIPITATION THUS FAR HAS REMAINED IN THE FORM OF
A COLD RAIN IN AREAS OUT TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST. LOCALLY, WE STILL
ARE HOLDING ON TO A LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR LAYER WHICH CAN BE SEEN BY THE
DONUT HOLE APPEARANCE OF REFLECTIVITY ON THE KLVX 88-D.
ADDITIONALLY, ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF KSDF THIS MORNING SHOW THIS DRY
LAYER AS WELL, ALONG WITH A DECENT WARM NOSE APPROACHING 7-8 DEGREES
C OVER THE REGION.
SO FAR, THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
WHILE ASSOCIATED LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ADVANCES EASTWARD. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL SATURATE DOWN AND
PROBABLY WETBULB TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN
THE 800-900MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WARM NOSE ALOFT WHILE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO RE-INFORCE COLD ADVECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.
PRECIPITATION LARGELY SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A COLD RAIN, AS WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR MAY DECREASE A BIT AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN
DUE TO WET-BULBING EFFECTS, BUT SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP
TO AROUND 33-34 DEGREES. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR,
INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OFF AS LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER,
WET-BULBING SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO A MESSY MIX
OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN. THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY WEATHER AND
ITS MEASURABLE IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WET-
BULBING WE'LL SEE AND HOW FAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. AS OF NOW,
STILL THINK THE BEST CHANCES OF A SLUSHY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL
BE NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR WHERE A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL
MAY OCCUR. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP ACROSS
MAYBE, SCOTT AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA OVER
INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX
IN ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON
EXPOSED/ELEVATED OBJECTS. CURRENT ROAD TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S, SO IMPACTS FROM ICING ON ROADWAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
LIMITED TO MAINLY AIR-EXPOSED BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. HOWEVER, ANY
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES THAT OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE I-
64 CORRIDOR COULD EASILY OVERCOME THESE GROUND TEMPS AND CAUSE A FEW
ROAD ISSUES. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA CONTINUES TO LOOK
WELL PLACED AND THE HIGHEST THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER IMPACTS STILL
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 5-10 AM EST. AS OF THIS WRITING, NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WE'LL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
IMPACTS FROM THIS MORNING'S WINTRY WEATHER SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
MID-MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY,
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE KNOCKED
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. WARMER READINGS WILL BE FOUND DOWN
SOUTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS WHERE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ARE
EXPECTED. SOME UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE FOUND
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AREA.
FOR TONIGHT, WHILE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST,
RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KY/NORTHERN TN WILL LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTIVE SCHEME
ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S IN
THE NORTH WITH MID-UPPER 40S DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
===== TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY =====
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH, AIDED BY CONTINUOUS SW FLOW
FROM A RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER INCOMING
TROUGH WITH ENHANCED SW FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THAT NEXT TROUGH
ARRIVES, TUESDAY WILL BE WARM WITH SHOWERS DUE TO THE SW FLOW AT MID
TO LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH CONSTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO,
PROVIDING MEDIUM-HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAINLY IN NORTHERN
AREAS. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR OUR NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES, ENHANCED SW FLOW WILL FORM A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
STALLING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF WASHINGTON, SCOTT, AND
JEFFERSON IN COUNTIES, CREATING ALL DAY RAIN WITH HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.5"-0.75" POSSIBLE. TOTALS SHARPLY DECREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO COMMUNITIES WHERE JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE QPF GUIDANCE AS WELL, WITH THESE
AREAS RANGING 0.1-0.3" OF RAIN. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS MAY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY. HIGHS WILL BE MILD, THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER IN NORTHERN AREAS FROM INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MORE
CONSTANT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH AREA WIDE HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID 60S
TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS. WINDS COULD PICK UP
DURING THE DAY FROM A LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD AS WELL, THOUGH NOTHING
MORE THAN A LIGHT BREEZE IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LOWS ARE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY PROMOTE SOME
SLIGHT RIDGING, FURTHER BOOSTING SW FLOW AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS.
THIS IN TURN WILL WARM HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES, WITH A LINGERING STEADY RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS BECOME MORE OFF AND ON LATER
IN THE DAY FROM SLIGHTLY WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH HIGHS BEING AS WARM AS
EXPECTED, SOME OF THE PASSING SHOWERS COULD HAVE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WITH THEM FROM A LITTLE INSTABILITY, THOUGH THIS CHANCE FOR NOW
SEEMS LOW AND ISOLATED IN A FEW AREAS. THIS AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, BEING A STARK DIFFERENCE FROM
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM THIS WEEKEND, FEELING MUCH MORE LIKE
SPRING. OVERNIGHT THE PASSING SHOWERS MAY LINGER, WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
===== THURSDAY - FRIDAY =====
THURSDAY MORNING STARTS RATHER WARM AND WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE, EXPECT WARM HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS WELL.
CURRENT TRENDS FROM LONG RANGE MODELS ARE WEAKENING THIS APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES TO OUR NORTH. BEING SITUATED IN THE MIDST OF A
BROAD RIDGE WITH NO JET DYNAMICS TO SUSTAIN THIS SHORTWAVE, IT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH. EXACTLY HOW MUCH THIS SHORTWAVE WEAKENS
WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA WILL RECEIVE. THE CURRENT GFS
RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FASTER SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, THE 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS A SLOWER, WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT
MAY FAIL TO MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KY/TN BORDER. THERE'S STILL A
FEW DAYS TO IRON THESE DETAILS OUT BUT FOR NOW, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SEEM CERTAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM
DURING THE DAY. LOWS ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IF SW FLOW REMAINS,
WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR 60.
ON FRIDAY, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE US
SOUTHWEST, ORIENTING THE FLOW FROM UPPER TO LOW LEVELS FROM THE SW
TO NE, CREATING ANOTHER STALLED OUT BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH PREDOMINANT SW
FLOW AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, POSSIBLY NEARING RECORD HIGHS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
MAYBE A STORM, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. THIS SW FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUNDING MORE LIKE A
METAPHORICAL BROKEN RECORD AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL START OFF AS VFR BUT WILL DECREASE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE LATER THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST FROM
MISSOURI. LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
INITIALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, BUT A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ONLY BWG IS EXPECTED TO SEE PLAIN RAIN
WITH THIS EVENT. BEST TIME FOR WINTRY PRECIP AT HNB/SDF/LEX WILL BE
BETWEEN 02/09-15Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ031>037-042-043.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
INZ076>079-092.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....BKF
AVIATION.....MJ
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