155
FXUS63 KLMK 022058
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
358 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH STEADY RAIN FAVORED IN OUR NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES.
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
* WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK, GROWING
INCREASINGLY WARMER BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
* AFTER ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM ON SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING
MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS, RAINFALL TOTALS MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE A
FEW MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN IN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL START TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET, HOWEVER
WE'LL KEEP SCATTERED COVERAGE AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS A RESURGENCE AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE NOSES INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL TAKE MOST OF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR N CWA WITH
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL AROUND DAWN. FROM THERE,
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA, MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN HALF, TUESDAY MORNING. MOST PLACES SHOULD EXPECT AN
ADDITIONAL .25" TO .33" OF QPF WITH THE TUESDAY MORNING ROUND, WITH
A FEW SPOTS LIKELY SEEING CLOSER TO A HALF AN INCH. FARTHER SOUTH,
SOUTHERN KY CAN EXPECT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR COMPLETELY DRY. THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH DOES BEGIN OUR WELL-ANTICIPATED PATTERN OF A
MUCH MILDER AND PROLONGED STRETCH OF WEATHER, AND TUESDAY WILL
ALREADY SEE A RANGE OF LOW TO MID 60S TEMPS ACROSS OUR NORTH, AND
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WAVER ALONG AND
JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH MOST OF THE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY RIDING ALONG OR NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL GRADIENT SHARP N-S GRADIENTS IN TEMPERATURE, POPS, AND QPF
AMOUNTS AS SOUTHERN KY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO STAY
MILDER/MOSTLY DRY DURING THAT STRETCH. FOR INSTANCE, WEDNESDAY HIGHS
WILL FEATURE MOSTLY 70S. ABOUT A 10 DEGREE SPREAD FROM SOUTHERN KY
IN THE UPPER 70S, AND SOUTHERN IN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
WE'LL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH, TO ISOLATED OR DRY
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...
WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
TIME FRAME AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
UP TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH SE CONUS RIDGING HELPING US BECOME MILD AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE. THE OVERALL SHEAR PROFILE IMPROVES FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL JETTING RAMPS UP BENEATH
MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE CURRENT DAY
3 SEVERE OUTLOOK FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXTEND INTO THURSDAY FOR
OUR AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. EARLY ON IN THIS WAVE, IT
LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCES THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE SHORTWAVE TIMING IS A BIT LATER.
COULD SEE ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN KY BY THURSDAY AS
WELL, SO MAY HAVE TO START WATCHING FOR SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA BY THEN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
----THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY ----
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PARK OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, SHIFTING THE WIND
FLOW AT THE LOW AND UPPER LEVELS FROM SW TO NE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
CONSIDERABLE WAA WILL ALLOW FOR WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME PLACES GETTING ABOVE 80.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY, THOUGH OUR NEXT
SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ON FRIDAY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, DEEPENING AS IT SHIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
GET INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY, AND WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT DEW
POINTS WILL GET INTO THE 60S. ADDED INSTABILITY AND FORCING
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY PM-SATURDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW STALLS OVER KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, REMAINING OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THE BOUNDARY LATE
SUNDAY-MONDAY, ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CARRYING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT SHOWERS
TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
THOUGH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BECOMES MORE SHOWERY THIS
EVENING. IFR CEILINGS HAVE SET IN, OR WILL SOON SET IN AT
HNB/LEX/SDF, AND WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR RGA. SURFACE
WINDS SWING AROUND TO A MORE LIGHT S COMPONENT TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA, AND COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT HNB AS A 37-42 KNOT SW-NE LLJ TAKES HOLD. IFR
CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO IMPROVE SOME TOMORROW MORNING WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES. A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED AS THE STEADY
SSW WIND PICKS UP AND LOWER CEILINGS TRY TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR OR
HIGHER END MVFR VALUES.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...BJS
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