642
FXUS63 KLMK 030836
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
336 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS BRING RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH STEADY RAIN FAVORED IN OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
* WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK, GROWING
INCREASINGLY WARMER BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
* AFTER ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM ON SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING
MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS, RAINFALL TOTALS MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE A
FEW MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN IN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER KENTUCKY AND
IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE KY MESONET DATA. QUITE A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS. LOWER-MIDDLE 50
DEGREE READINGS WERE NOTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KY SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE WARM FRONT
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD WITH TEMPS RISING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH END OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY, AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL ROLL
EASTWARD OUT OF MISSOURI BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. QPF OF A
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. BY MID-
LATE AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD SURGE INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 70S
SOUTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS. TO THE NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND FAR NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF OUR REGION BY LATE DAY
AND MOST AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT, AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND INTO OHIO AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
THE HIGHEST RISK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA
COUNTIES, WITH A LESSER RISK AS ONE HEADS SOUTH OF THE WK/BG
PARKWAYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA
WITH MUCH OF KENTUCKY SEEING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT...
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WITHIN THIS FLOW, A SMALL PERTURBATION LOOKS TO ZIP
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO GENERATE
A BAND OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT WILL SAG EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE CUMBERLAND PARKWAY MAY MISS MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS, WE'LL LIKELY SEE A GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MID-UPPER 60S OVER SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
WITH MID-UPPER 70S OVER FAR SOUTHERN KY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE'LL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES STATES. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER TO AN EXTENT AFTER THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXITS TO OUR EAST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STARTS TO BECOME MAXIMIZED. AS THIS
OCCURS, MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A STEEPENING OF THE 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS TO
REFIRE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES, MOST MODELS SHOW
A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE SUGGESTIVE THAT WE WOULD SEE
MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH AN ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL RISK. HAIL
RISK WOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN CELLS THAT DEVELOP STRONGER ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD
GENERALLY BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS.
CURRENT DAY TWO RISK FROM SPC HAS OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK HERE
AND WE AGREE.
MOVING INTO THURSDAY, SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND TRANSVERSING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING
YIELDING A LINE OR BAND OF CONVECTION THAT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING. BULK SHEAR VALUES HERE ARE IN THE 25-
35KT RANGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION,
AND WITH STRONGER TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE 4 CORNER REGION,
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DOWN STREAM WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE FRONT TO
SURGE BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL IN/OH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER SOUTHERN
IN WITH TEMPS ACROSS KY IN THE 73-78 DEGREE RANGE. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
AS FOR QPF, WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OF 2-3
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH 1-2 INCHES BETWEEN THE
OHIO RIVER AND THE WK/BG PARKWAYS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS, A
QUARTER TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOVING INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, SURFACE WARM FRONT OR QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS IL/IN/OH ON FRIDAY WITH THE
SE RIDGE GROWING IN AMPLITUDE. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD DEVELOP, BUT THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS PRETTY LIMITED. RECORD HIGH MAXIMA COULD BE
BROKEN AT SDF/LEX/BWG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S.
ON SATURDAY, UPPER TROUGH AXIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
PLENTIFUL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, 0-6KM SHEAR
PROFILES ARE PRETTY MARGINAL HERE WITH 25-30KTS OF SHEAR AND LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AS WELL. OVERALL, A CONDITIONAL
RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO GET A DECENT PUSH THROUGH THE STATE AS A
BROAD ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING WESTWARD OFF THE BAJA. THE LATEST 03/00Z
GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER HERE IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD, SO
I EXPECT TO SEE THE BLEND EVENTUALLY DRY UP IN FUTURE RUNS. TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S, RECOVERING UP TO NEAR 70 BY MONDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION AROUND WED/THU
(3/11-12) IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SIGNAL ANALYSIS FROM
LATE FEBRUARY HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL
PASSAGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. AFTER
THIS FRONT, A REGIME CHANGE LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH A PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS FEATURING MORE OF A RIDGE WEST TROUGH EAST SETUP. SIGNAL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO KEY IN ON ANOTHER SIGNAL PASSAGE AROUND 3/18
WITH ANOTHER ONE AROUND 3/16.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ONGOING IFR CONDITIONS AT SDF/BWG SHOULD
START TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CRANK UP
IN A FEW HOURS SO LLWS WILL CONTINUE AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AT THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
03/12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS POSSIBLY
BRINGING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BUT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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