108
FXUS63 KLMK 032355
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS/STORMS WORKING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN IN/NORTH CENTRAL KY BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
* RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KY INTO SOUTHERN IN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK, GROWING
INCREASINGLY WARMER BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
* AFTER ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM ON SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING
MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS, RAINFALL TOTALS MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE A
FEW MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN IN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SHOWER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MEANDERING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH SOME
STORMS POTENTIALLY BEING STRONG TO SEVERE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MOST NOTABLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON, THIS IS
EVIDENT BY 19Z SFC OBSERVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S
IN DUBOIS COUNTY IN INDIANA ALONG WITH MID/UPPER 60S. THE CORE OF
THE LLJ WAS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN IN INTO CENTRAL KY, AND WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON, MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO GUST BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL IN ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN, THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE NORTH OF
THE CWA ACROSS CENTRAL IN.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH ANY
ONGOING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN IN AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY THE START OF THE DAY TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE
MILD OVERNIGHT DROPPING INTO LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, NORTH
CENTRAL KY AND THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY.
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THAT AT LEAST HALF
OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES, WITH THE RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE EARLY
PREDAWN HOURS. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT UNTIL 18Z TOMORROW
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN RANGES FROM ONE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH THIS IS
WELL BELOW THE 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
TWO INCHES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR WFO NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH,
WHERE THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, DECIDED NO TO ISSUE ONE GIVEN THE FORECAST QPF AND CURRENT
FFG. WITH THAT SAID, IF THE RAIN WERE TO DROP SOUTH SOONER
INCREASING THE DURATION OF RAINFALL OVER OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES,
THEN WE MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING
CONCERNS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF BRIEFLY AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN IN/CENTRAL KY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
OF 7-7.5 C/KM, WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG, THE ONE LIMITING
FACTOR COULD BE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERN IN/NORTH-CENTRAL KY
IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE SEVERE HAIL
AS THE MAIN THREAT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
SFC LOW WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS
AND FLOODING AS WE CONTINUE TO PUT WATER OVER INCREASINGLY MORE
SATURATED GROUND. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN STRONG STORMS FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAY BE OUR BREAK FROM ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE RECORD VALUES ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TO UPPER
70S ARE LIKELY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ON SATURDAY, A ROBUST LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EJECTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. IN ADDITION, ITS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE THAN ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE.
GIVEN THE CURRENT MORNING/MIDDAY TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS
WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
0-6 KM WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE WEATHER IS
LIMITED, BUT NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
DURING THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 0.5-
1.00" OF QPF CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA WITH SOILS ALREADY BEING SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS STORMS
OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY GETTING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LINGERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A
BROAD UPPER-LOW RETROGRADING OFF THE BAJA, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL HELP RESULT IN A MOSTLY QUIETER
PATTERN FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CARRY SOME GULF MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, AND WITH A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO REBOUND FROM THE WEEKEND FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 654 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, THERE IS FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE WARM FRONT AND RAIN
REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH WIND
AROUND 6-10 KT THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE WILL BE A 35-40 KT S/SW JET
AROUND 2 KFT AGL TONIGHT, LLWS SHOULD BE MARGINAL, SO WE'LL LEAVE IT
OUT OF THIS TAF PACKAGE. BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT, THE WARM FRONT WILL
SAG TO THE SOUTH, WITH RAIN, AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS,
SINKING TOWARD HNB/SDF/LEX DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TSRA ISN'T SUPER HIGH RIGHT NOW, BUT MENTION
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. AS THE FRONT AND RAIN
SINKS SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE EAST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN IMPACTS DURING THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD APPEAR TO BE REDUCED VIS FROM SHRA TOMORROW MORNING, AS WELL
AS LOWER CIGS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BWG/RGA WOULD BE FAVORED
TO BE THE LEAST IMPACTED, AS THE FRONT MAY NOT SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO REACH THOSE TERMINALS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CSG
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