212
FXUS63 KLMK 040516
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1216 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS/STORMS WORKING BACK INTO
SOUTHERN IN/NORTH CENTRAL KY BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A STALLED WARM
FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.
* RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KY INTO SOUTHERN IN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ALL WEEK, GROWING
INCREASINGLY WARMER BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
* AFTER ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM ON SATURDAY THAT COULD BRING
MORE ROUNDS OF STRONG STORMS, RAINFALL TOTALS MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE A
FEW MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN IN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN AT THIS HOUR, IT IS DRY, WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF I-64, WHILE
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. THE SFC
WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY ALONG THE US 50 CORRIDOR AT THIS
HOUR, IN OTHER WORDS, JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WITH WFO IND. TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT, ROUNDS HAVE CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MANY AREAS IN CENTRAL IN RECEIVING
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, A SECONDARY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS, WITH 35-40
KT OF 850 MB SW FLOW EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. AS MCSS
LIKE THE ONE ONGOING TO OUR NORTH WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE IN THE
OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LLJ, IT MAKES SENSE THAT HI-RES MODELS
SHOW THIS AREA OF CONVECTION SAGGING INTO SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH
CENTRAL KY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE POOL
OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE OVER SOUTHERN IL IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT
ITSELF MORE EAST-WEST ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT, SO IT'S
LIKELY THAT WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS
CONVECTION SAGS SOUTH. GIVEN COOL AIR UNDERCUTTING CONVECTION, WOULD
EXPECT THINGS TO REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH ANY STRONGER CORES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS FAR AS THE FLOODING THREAT IS CONCERNED LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WPC DID EXTEND THE DAY 1 (THROUGH 7 AM WED)
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR. THE AIR MASS FEEDING INTO CONVECTION WILL HAVE GOOD
SATURATION, WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.25-1.40" JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA OF CONVECTION. ON TOP OF THAT, SLAB-LIKE LIFTING OVER THE LLVL
BOUNDARY AND MODEST (NOT TOO MUCH) INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN RATES, THOUGH IT'S STILL LIKELY THAT SOME
INEFFICIENCIES DUE TO ICE GENERATION WILL BE EXPERIENCED. HREF AND
REFS 6-HR LPMM PROGS DO SHOW SOME SWATHS OF 1-2" OF RAIN BETWEEN NOW
AND MIDDAY TOMORROW, MAINLY NORTH OF THE WK/BG PARKWAYS. WHILE THERE
CERTAINLY MAY BE A NEED FOR A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY EVEN
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING TOMORROW MORNING, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS (EVEN IN THE HEAVIEST CORES) ARE LARGELY BELOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES. MOST
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING OF HEAVIER CELLS. IF THE
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION IS LESS ROBUST, THAT WOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IN
AND NORTH CENTRAL KY, WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SHOWER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MEANDERING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH SOME
STORMS POTENTIALLY BEING STRONG TO SEVERE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, MOST NOTABLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON, THIS IS
EVIDENT BY 19Z SFC OBSERVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S
IN DUBOIS COUNTY IN INDIANA ALONG WITH MID/UPPER 60S. THE CORE OF
THE LLJ WAS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN IN INTO CENTRAL KY, AND WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON, MIXING HAS ALLOWED THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO GUST BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL IN ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN, THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE NORTH OF
THE CWA ACROSS CENTRAL IN.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH ANY
ONGOING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN IN AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY THE START OF THE DAY TOMORROW. LOWS WILL BE
MILD OVERNIGHT DROPPING INTO LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN IN, NORTH
CENTRAL KY AND THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY.
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THAT AT LEAST HALF
OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES, WITH THE RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE EARLY
PREDAWN HOURS. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT UNTIL 18Z TOMORROW
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN RANGES FROM ONE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH THIS IS
WELL BELOW THE 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
TWO INCHES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR WFO NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH,
WHERE THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, DECIDED NO TO ISSUE ONE GIVEN THE FORECAST QPF AND CURRENT
FFG. WITH THAT SAID, IF THE RAIN WERE TO DROP SOUTH SOONER
INCREASING THE DURATION OF RAINFALL OVER OUR SOUTHERN IN COUNTIES,
THEN WE MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING
CONCERNS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF BRIEFLY AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A VORT MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN IN/CENTRAL KY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
OF 7-7.5 C/KM, WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG, THE ONE LIMITING
FACTOR COULD BE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, LIMITING THE
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERN IN/NORTH-CENTRAL KY
IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE SEVERE HAIL
AS THE MAIN THREAT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
SFC LOW WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT SPC
OUTLOOK HAS THE AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS ALONG WITH THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE POTENTIAL CONCERNS
AND FLOODING AS WE CONTINUE TO PUT WATER OVER INCREASINGLY MORE
SATURATED GROUND. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN STRONG STORMS FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAY BE OUR BREAK FROM ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE RECORD VALUES ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TO UPPER
70S ARE LIKELY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ON SATURDAY, A ROBUST LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EJECTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. IN ADDITION, ITS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE THAN ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE.
GIVEN THE CURRENT MORNING/MIDDAY TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS
WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
0-6 KM WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE WEATHER IS
LIMITED, BUT NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
DURING THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 0.5-
1.00" OF QPF CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA WITH SOILS ALREADY BEING SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS STORMS
OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY GETTING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LINGERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A
BROAD UPPER-LOW RETROGRADING OFF THE BAJA, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL HELP RESULT IN A MOSTLY QUIETER
PATTERN FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CARRY SOME GULF MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, AND WITH A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO REBOUND FROM THE WEEKEND FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LOCATED
NORTH OF THE REGION ALONG A HUF-IND-DAY CORRIDOR. LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO RAMP UP OUT ACROSS FAR WESTERN KY AND INTO SOUTHWEST IN.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE HNB/SDF/LEX AREAS TOWARD
04/12Z. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, THOUGH WE MAY HAVE TO INSERT SOME TSRA IN THERE IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BUT WILL LIKELY BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE PERIOD FROM 04/12-19Z LOOKS FAIRLY WET FOR
SDF/LEX/HNB, THOUGH BWG AND PERHAPS RGA WILL SEE MUCH LESS IMPACTS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THAT CONVECTION ROLLS
EASTWARD.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE.......CSG
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM....BEN
AVIATION.....MJ
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