294
FXUS63 KLMK 041127
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
627 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH/EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
* A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD BREAK HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECORDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
* RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH 1-2 INCHES BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE
WK/BG PARKWAY REGION. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS, A HALF TO ONE AND
HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES
MAY BE SEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN LOW-MID 50S OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY, WITH UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN A FOCUS OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. AREA VAD WIND
PROFILES FROM THE 88D'S SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS OUT
TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN TN/KY INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. COMBINATION
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION OF SHOWERS RECENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KY.
FOR THE REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO DROP SOUTHWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK PERTURBATION
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS IN THE LAST
6 HOURS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT A
BIT. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
FIRE OVER SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DRIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS CONVECTION TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. SO BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW
OF SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES.
MOVING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
IN PROGRESS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR DOWN TO SAY
THE BG/WK PARKWAY REGION SEEMS PLAUSIBLE, THOUGH A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY OVER IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION. MUCH OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. IF A STRONGER CELL WERE
TO DEVELOP, SOME SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. CONVECTION LOOKS TO SLIDE
OFF TO THE EAST BY MID-AFTERNOON OR SO WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ON THE DAY WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S NORTH OF THE PARKWAYS, WITH
UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATION APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. GROWING
SIGNAL IN THE DATA SUGGESTS THAT WE'LL SEE DESTABILIZATION TAKE
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF COLDER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A BIT WITH
SHEAR VALUES RISING INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS WEST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE HERE AND BASED ON
SOUNDINGS A WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. AS THE PERTURBATION MOVES THROUGH, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
SOME SORT OF LINEAR LINE MAY OCCUR. THIS LINE WOULD PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL KY THIS EVENING WEAKENING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
WE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SECONDARY PERTURBATION AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY STRETCH OUT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOME ZONAL AGAIN AND THEN
RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
BISECTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL YIELD A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURE. NORTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70, WITH READINGS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
QPF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH A HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS KENTUCKY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR IN SWATHS WHERE TRAINING OF
STORMS MAY OCCUR. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOOT UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. RECORD HIGHS AT THE CLIMATE SITES COULD BE BROKEN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND A STOUT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND SE US.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH. WE EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND STORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
HEADS THROUGH THE REGION. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT ALL HIGH ON
SATURDAY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING ABOUT 25-30KTS OF SHEAR. LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MARGINAL AS WELL. OVERALL, THE THREAT
OF STRONG/SEVERE IS CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. ANOTHER HALF TO
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND
THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.
COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING A MUCH
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW OUR FLOW TO RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST BASED REGIME. A
FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
WE'LL SEE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S ON
MONDAY AND MAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW, PLAN ON KEEPING SHOWERS AS THE PREDOMINANT
GROUP AS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED AND ONLY A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER HERE AND THERE ARE EXPECTED. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DIPPING SOUTHWARD, HNB/SDF/LEX/RGA WILL GENERALLY SEE NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW THIS MORNING BUT THAT SHOULD VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AS AN UPPER AIR IMPULSE MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. BWG LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY STORM LATER
THIS EVENING.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
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