771
FXUS63 KLMK 050123
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
823 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR REPEATING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES
POSSIBLE, BUT COULD SEE STREAKS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY STRONGER
STORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
* A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD BREAK HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECORDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
* RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH 0.5-1 INCHES BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND
THE WK/BG PARKWAY REGION. SOUTH OF THE PARKWAYS, UP TO A HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME MINOR HYDRO ISSUES MAY BE
SEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 818 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
THE TAIL END OF AN MCV IS WORKING THROUGH SOUTHERN IN WITH A SMALL
SUPERCELL WORKING THROUGH WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO SCOTT COUNTY IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE STABLE AS IT IS NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER. AS THIS SMALL CELL
CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH SOUTHERN IN, THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
SMALL HAIL.
AS OF 01Z SDF WAS REPORTING 68 DEGREES WHILE LOU WAS 64 AND ACROSS
THE RIVER INTO CLARK COUNTY IN IT WAS AROUND 60 AND REPORTS OF
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG. EXPECT THE FOG TO MIX OUT AS THIS WAVES WORKS
THROUGH.
AS FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS OVERNIGHT, WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS TAKE OUT POPS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT IT WILL STILL BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE
RIGHT ALONG THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY FROM TELL CITY IN, TO LOUISVILLE,
TO AROUND LEXINGTON AND TOWARD JACKSON, KY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON, DRIVEN BY A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE REGION, AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR. CLOUD COVER HAS SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA, WITH BETTER
CLEARING TO OUR SOUTH RESULTING IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID-70S.
HOWEVER, CLOSER TO THE SFC BOUNDARY, TEMPS HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOW
TO MID-60S. STORMS HAVE MOSTLY MOVED ALONG A EAST-WEST ORIENTED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE OHIO RIVER, AND HAVE NOT
BE ABLE TO REALIZE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. BEGINNING
TO SEE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WORKING IN FROM THE WEST, WITH
ONLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 AT THIS TIME.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AS A SFC LOW MOVES
ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WE'LL SEE LOW-LEVEL
JETTING STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW, MAINTAINING OUR WAA
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. PWATS ARE AROUND 1.3" THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. BASED OFF SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, PWATS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE
AMONG THE MAX FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THERE REMAINS A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS EVENING, WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COULD BE LEFT AFTER THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT MORE
THINNING OF THE OVERCAST DECK FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SHORT WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
RECHARGING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS EVENING, WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50KTS SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO ELS NEAR 12KM, AND SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AT THE MID-LEVELS, LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF I-65. THERE IS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR A TORNADO WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN IN,
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME BACKED SFC WINDS AS A
POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER AS THEY
MOVE EAST OF I-65 THIS EVENING, WITH LESS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY TO
THE EAST AND WANING SEVERE CHANCES AS THEY MOVE EAST.
ASIDE FROM THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING, THERE IS GROWING
CONCERN FOR TRAINING CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. QPF FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IS MAINLY BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES, THOUGH WITH THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF PRECIP, STREAKS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY WILL BE
POSSIBLE, LEADING TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ISSUES INTO
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OVER GROUNDS ALREADY
SOMEWHAT SATURATED, COLLABORATED WITH OTHER WFOS ON A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MID-70
ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS THE SYSTEM FROM THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH,
FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUIETER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO TO THE
NORTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 70S, WITH SOME PLACES
GETTING ABOVE 80. AS A RESULT, SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES COULD HAVE
THEIR RECORD HIGHS BROKEN. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EITHER.
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP, WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION, ITS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST,
PASSING OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY. GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, IN
ADDITION TO MODELS SHOWING 25-30 KTS OF WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FOR SATURDAY. THE THREAT WILL BE
CONDITIONAL, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SURFACE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER 0.5 - 1.0" OF RAINFALL IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.
AS THE COLD FRONT RETREATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SUNDAY, BROAD
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
HELP RESULT IN A MUCH CALMER PATTERN OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S, REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S FOR
MONDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE MONDAY,
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO FILL BACK IN OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS A FEW WAVES PASS
THROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF THE REGION OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE CWA WILL HELP RESULT IN MORE RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SDF/HNB FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. SITES COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF LOWER VIS WITH HEAVIER
RAINFALL. A MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH CEILING AROUND 1500FT MAINLY FOR HNB/SDF. LLWS IS
POSSIBLE FOR BWG/LEX/RGA TONIGHT FROM 05-09Z AT 20KFT. SSW WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LLJ MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ023-032.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
089>092.
UPDATE...BTN
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...CAL
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