133
FNUS73 KLMK 122027
FWSLMK
SPOT FORECAST FOR LAKE CELINA DAM...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
427 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON MARCH 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING THROUGH MICHIGAN AND
INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40 MPH EXPECTED. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD ONLY ALLOW RH
VALES TO DROP TO AROUND 40% BY THE AFTERNOON, AND THE COMBINATION
OF COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING AND STRONG WINDS WILL SUPPORT SMOKE
DISPERSION IN THE EXCELLENT RANGE FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........41 AT IGNITION...MAX 61.
RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
WEST 14 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH DECREASING TO 29 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5400 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 30
TO 39 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR /39800 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
MAX...EXCELLENT /133200 KNOT-FT/ INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (135800 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................31 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 107 IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........56 47 47 44 43 48 54 51 55 64 59 42
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............41 41 42 43 45 48 52 54 57 59 59 60
RH..............53 53 53 53 55 54 50 48 43 42 40 39
20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..11 12 12 14 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.22 25 25 27 28 27 25 25 22 22 22 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 24 25 30 35 38 39 38 36 35 32 30
LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............31 47 50 62 76 89 100 105 105 107 102 93
SDSPL KT-FT/100040 43 47 60 76 95 117 133 142 154 153 136
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36.
RH..................MAX 72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 18
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 12
TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH 7 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (87500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (1900 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................94 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 3 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........25 14 28 21 26 30 27 25 22 28 33 39
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............59 57 55 50 47 46 44 43 42 41 39 38
RH..............40 43 45 54 60 60 62 65 65 65 70 70
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W NW NW NW N N N NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..8 6 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.18 16 13 11 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.0 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W NW NW NW NW N N N N NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.25 20 15 13 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 7
LVORI...........1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............94 13 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3
SDSPL KT-FT/100088 40 12 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 2
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63.
RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (46700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................3 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 65 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........44 49 54 55 57 58 60 61 63 63 62 62
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............37 36 36 38 42 46 51 55 59 61 63 63
RH..............70 72 72 70 62 56 48 45 40 39 36 38
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.6 3.9 3.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE E E E E E E SE SE SE S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 8 9 10 10 12 12 13 13 14 14 14
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............3 8 10 11 15 23 30 41 48 60 65 63
SDSPL KT-FT/10002 3 4 7 10 16 21 29 34 43 47 46
FORECASTER...BEN
REQUESTED BY...JEREMY KOLAKS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2605540.0/LMK
.DELDT 03/12/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RYAN.OTTO@USDA.GOV,LOGAN.SHERSCHEL@USDA.GOV,PAUL.FOUNTAIN@USDA.GOV,JEREMY.KOLAKS@USDA.GOV
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