189
FNUS73 KLMK 131107
FWSLMK
SPOT FORECAST FOR LAKE CELINA DAM...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MARCH 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA TODAY, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM;
HOWEVER, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND SCATTERED 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS LIKELY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT RH VALUES WILL DROP LIKE THEY
DID YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER AND LESS DRY
AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. STILL, ANY SOUTH OR WEST ASPECTS
WHICH SEE BREAKS IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD SEE RH VALUES FALL INTO THE
20S. OTHERWISE, GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING DEPTHS,
DISPERSION PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EXCELLENT RANGE TODAY.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS AND
SHALLOWER MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........42 AT IGNITION...MAX 62.
RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14
MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 9 TO 10 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 33 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5200 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 33 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 29
TO 37 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /24800 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
MAX...EXCELLENT /110900 KNOT-FT/ INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (126100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................34 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 120 IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........58 57 60 56 72 63 58 52 51 34
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............42 43 46 49 52 55 58 59 60 60
RH..............51 51 51 52 50 47 44 42 39 39
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 10 11 12 11 10 10 10 9 8
20 FT WIND GUST.20 21 22 23 22 22 21 20 20 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.7 5.2 5.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 29 33 37 37 35 32 31 31 29
LVORI...........1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............34 47 62 78 87 89 89 92 97 120
SDSPL KT-FT/100025 37 55 76 93 104 111 126 140 129
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36.
RH..................MAX 72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 9
TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 9 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (84300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (2800 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................90 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........32 37 44 39 26 14 9 12 10 4 7 6
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............61 59 56 51 49 48 45 44 42 41 40 38
RH..............36 37 42 50 54 54 58 60 62 65 64 67
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W NW NW NW N N N E E
20 FT WIND SPD..7 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2
20 FT WIND GUST.15 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.0 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W NW NW NW N N N N NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 20 15 13 12 10 9 9 9 9 9 9
LVORI...........1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............90 9 10 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDSPL KT-FT/100084 42 14 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65.
RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (50300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................4 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 70 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........6 17 26 47 52 57 54 52 49 44 38 33
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............38 38 36 38 42 47 51 55 58 61 63 64
RH..............70 70 72 70 62 56 50 43 40 39 38 40
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
20 FT WIND GUST.4 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE E E E E E E SE SE SE SE S
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 10 12 13 14 13 12 12 13 15 16
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............4 10 11 12 18 26 29 31 35 47 64 70
SDSPL KT-FT/10003 3 4 7 12 18 20 21 24 33 46 50
FORECASTER...WFO LMK
REQUESTED BY...JEREMY KOLAKS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2605540.1/LMK
.DELDT 03/13/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL PAUL.FOUNTAIN@USDA.GOV,LOGAN.SHERSCHEL@USDA.GOV,JEREMY.KOLAKS@USDA.GOV,RYAN.OTTO@USDA.GOV
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