242
FXUS63 KLMK 172032
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
432 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO
THE REGION, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
RAIN.
* THURSDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
SOME.
* TEMPERATURES WARM EVERYDAY BEFORE REACHING INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
CURRENTLY, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA WHILE INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND
NORTH. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND COOLING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE AXIS OF THE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH IN NOW EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, BACKING WINDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH, BUT THE HIGH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO EASE NEAR CALM. THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH WILL
CARRY A SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW TO THE REGION.
LOOKING AT MODEL DATA, THE SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH ITS OWN MOISTURE WITH
A DRY LAYER REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. THE DGZ IS EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER THAN TUESDAY MORNING'S EVENT, AROUND 550-600 MB, IN THE
DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND
COOL SOUNDING PROFILES, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE CWA,
TEMPERATURES BEGIN WARMING ABOVE FREEZING CAUSING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS MIX/CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE
NORTHWARD OVER THE CWA, INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SPRINKLES/RAIN EXITS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE SHORTWAVE EXITING, SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM THE WEST.
HIGHS RETURN TO THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WARMER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THURSDAY, ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE FLOWING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO AT LEAST SOME. CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 30
PERCENT TO THE NORTHEAST FROM MADISON, INDIANA THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS. TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH A DRY LAYER
AND NO CONVECTIVE WEATHER IN THE AREA. WAA UNDER AFTERNOON CLEARING
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT HIGHS INTO 60S, AND BY FRIDAY, THE MID
70S RETURN ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
INTO THE WEEKEND, A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VARIED ON TIMING, RANGING FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY, THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FOLLOWING THE SAME PATH REACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY,
DROPPING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME LESS GUSTY, AND BY
EARLY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AS THEY
EASE, BECOMING ALMOST CALM. LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO
AREA TAF SITES WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR LEVELS.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...KDW
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