716
FXUS63 KLMK 180518
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO
THE REGION, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
RAIN.
* THURSDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
SOME.
* TEMPERATURES WARM EVERYDAY BEFORE REACHING INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
EXPECTING COLD AND QUIET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL
WELL INTO THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. MID AND UPPER SKY COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
SETTING UP JUST TO OUR WEST TOWARD DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. COULD GET SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, THE COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
HITTING THE GROUND AS SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
20S. HOWEVER, TEMPS DO START TO WARM BY MID TO LATE MORNING, AND ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DO THINK WE COULD GET A DUSTING OF SNOW IN A FEW SPOTS IN AREAS
WHERE THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IS BRIEFLY OVERCOME WITH SNOW, SO
DECIDED TO PUT OUT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. DON'T THINK WE'LL SEE
ANYTHING TO THE DEGREE WE SAW YESTERDAY MORNING, BUT PERHAPS A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
CURRENTLY, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA WHILE INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND
NORTH. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND COOLING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE AXIS OF THE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH IN NOW EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, BACKING WINDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH, BUT THE HIGH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO EASE NEAR CALM. THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH WILL
CARRY A SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW TO THE REGION.
LOOKING AT MODEL DATA, THE SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH ITS OWN MOISTURE WITH
A DRY LAYER REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. THE DGZ IS EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER THAN TUESDAY MORNING'S EVENT, AROUND 550-600 MB, IN THE
DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND
COOL SOUNDING PROFILES, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE CWA,
TEMPERATURES BEGIN WARMING ABOVE FREEZING CAUSING A RAIN SNOW MIX TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS MIX/CHANGEOVER WILL CONTINUE
NORTHWARD OVER THE CWA, INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SPRINKLES/RAIN EXITS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE SHORTWAVE EXITING, SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM THE WEST.
HIGHS RETURN TO THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WARMER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THURSDAY, ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE FLOWING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO AT LEAST SOME. CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 30
PERCENT TO THE NORTHEAST FROM MADISON, INDIANA THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS. TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH A DRY LAYER
AND NO CONVECTIVE WEATHER IN THE AREA. WAA UNDER AFTERNOON CLEARING
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT HIGHS INTO 60S, AND BY FRIDAY, THE MID
70S RETURN ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
INTO THE WEEKEND, A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS VARIED ON TIMING, RANGING FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY, THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FOLLOWING THE SAME PATH REACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY,
DROPPING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
LIGHT ESE WINDS AND A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. TOWARDS DAWN, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW.
THIS SNOW WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A 5-6KFT DECK AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO EVAPORATE MOST OF THE PRECIP. OCCASIONALLY, VIS MAY
DROP TO 5SM IN A MORE ROBUST SHOWER. ALL PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY UP TO 22KTS OUT OF THE SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...SRW
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