966
FXUS63 KLMK 180739
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
339 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.
* THURSDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
* TEMPERATURES WARM EACH DAY AND REACH THE 70S AND 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.
* A COLD FRONT LATE WEEKEND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS STEADILY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS ARE VEERING TO THE SOUTH. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW IS CURRENTLY
FALLING OUT OF A 8-10KFT CLOUD DECK AND THROUGH DRY LOWER LEVELS. WE
WILL MOSTLY SEE VIRGA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS AND THE BETTER FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION,
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SNOW AT THE SURFACE. LOOKING TO SEE SOME
FLURRIES TO A LIGHT DUSTING ON THE GROUND. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PICK UP MID-MORNING AND WAA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND WE WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLEARING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. WE
WILL SEE A GRADIENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SW IN THE MID 50S
AND THE NE IN THE MID 40S.
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR LOWS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS. TIMING ON THIS COLD FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS
MUCH VARIANCE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMING IN LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE. SINCE YESTERDAY, THE EFI SIGNAL FOR CAPE HAS INCREASED AND
LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CAPE WITHIN THE REGION
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PERIODS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
LIGHT ESE WINDS AND A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. TOWARDS DAWN, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW.
THIS SNOW WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A 5-6KFT DECK AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO EVAPORATE MOST OF THE PRECIP. OCCASIONALLY, VIS MAY
DROP TO 5SM IN A MORE ROBUST SHOWER. ALL PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY UP TO 22KTS OUT OF THE SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
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