416
FXUS63 KLMK 190222
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1022 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
..FORECAST UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WARM EACH DAY BEFORE REACHING THE 70S AND 80S BY
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK TO
THE 50S WITH AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SOME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
QUIET AND NOT AS CHILLY TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY STAY
CONFINED TO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. A FEW DECOUPLED VALLEYS MAY DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S, HOWEVER INCOMING SKY COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A SMALL RISE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. CEILINGS LOWER
TO A MID DECK BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST FOLKS WILL STAY DRY WITH
OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SIT ALONG THE EAST COAST, KEEPING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE IN THIS FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
HAS CLEARED SKIES WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. EAST OF 65, DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO LIMIT MOST OF THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, THIS CLEARING
AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS WINDS
BECOME LESS GUSTY.
TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL LIMIT FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
TOMORROW, WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINING THE SAME, NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PUSH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM. A SPRINKLE COULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT MANY WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANYTHING BESIDE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE WAVE. WAA WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES TO THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
FRIDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-
NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF OUR AREA,
TOWARDS THE SURFACE LOW, BUT THIS COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WAA WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN THE
BLUEGRASS.
BY THE WEEKEND, HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR EXTRA SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION, DROPPING HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 50S TO
MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW A ROBUST STABLE LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE, BUT SOME GUIDANCE HAS SOME ELEVATE INSTABILITY.
WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO OUR EAST, THIS FRONT
DOESN'T LOOK TOO CONCERNING. SOME ELEVATE INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
SOME HAIL, BUT THE WIND THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH A CHANCE WE CONTINUE
TO TREND DRIER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES, SOME UPPER SKY COVER BEGINS TO
MOVE IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING, WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 12-15K FEET BY LATE
MORNING. PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THIS THROUGH LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SSE WINDS TONIGHT GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SSW WINDS ON THURSDAY. VFR PREVAILS THROUGHOUT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BJS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page