580
FXUS63 KLMK 191440
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1040 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WARM EACH DAY BEFORE REACHING THE 70S AND 80S BY
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK TO
THE 50S WITH AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SOME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
THIS MORNING, A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION IS CROSSING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED MOISTURE CAN BE
SEEN ON 7.3-MICRON WV CHANNEL AND IS MANIFESTING AS A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WHICH IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 AS OF THIS HOUR.
WHILE WE'LL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY, MORE CLEARING TO THE NW OF THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE
LATEST FORECAST HAS NUDGED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF SPRINKLES FROM THE FORECAST
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND FORECAST
SOUNDING TRENDS.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH A MILDER AND QUIET DAY
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. UPDATED
FORECAST PRODUCTS WERE SENT IN THE LAST 10 MINUTES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES, THE WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY DRY AND ALSO START A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE CLOUDS PUSH THROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
CLEAR SKIES AROUND AS WE GO OVERNIGHT BUT NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY HIGH AND WITH SOME AFTERNOON
MIXING COULD GET SOME GUST OF 20-30 MPH. HIGHS CONTINUE TO GET
WARMER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/M,ID 70S WITH
UPPER 70S AROUND BOWLING GREEN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER STORY REMAINS THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S. WE
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO OUR EAST AND NORTH AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, AS WAS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATE
INSTABILITY, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
A WEAK UPPER WAVE IS WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND THE OHIO
VALLEY, HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER KY
THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE HIGH BKN/OVC SKIES THIS MORNING AND THERE
IS EVEN THE CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES BUT MOST WILL REMAIN DRY. WE
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST AND EXPECT CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
UPDATE...CSG
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page