349
FXUS63 KLMK 201058
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
658 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY SW WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT.
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND 80S EXPECTED.
* INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH
CONTINUED WARMING. ANOTHER WEAK SFC SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY DROPPING A SFC COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE WE WILL SEE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS, THE BEST DYNAMICS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED THE
MARGINAL RISK OR (1 OUT OF 5). THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE AS MIXING
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TO LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
THANKS TO MIXING. DECIDED TO FOLLOW NEIGHBORING WFO'S IN LOWERING TD
AS NBM GUIDANCE HAD BEEN RUNNING QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
OBSERVED VALUES. THIS WILL DECREASE THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH
MOST OF THE CWA REMAINING MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS WARING INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL START TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
KEEP US MAINLY DRY BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE FOLLOWING: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGHS WARM 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE LOW/MID 80S ON SUNDAY.
THREAT OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH TEMPERATURES ALLOWED TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S WE COULD SEE
DEWPOINTS WORK INTO THE THE MID/UPPER 50S BUT RECENT TRENDS IN THE
NBM HAVE HAD DEWPOINT VALUES RUNNING HIGHER THAN OBSERVED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY EVENING SHOW MUCAPE/MLCAPE TO BE BETWEEN 900-
1200 J/KG, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-7.5 C/KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR 45-50
KTS. I THINK THE ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MODELS
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYER. IF THE BOUNDARY AND
APPROACHING LLJ CAN PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WE COULD GET THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FIRING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND WITH THE SHEAR, CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SPIN-UP TORNADO. SPC HAS PUT OUR NORTHERN CWA INTO A SLIGHT
RISK OR A 2 OUT OF 5 FOR SUNDAY IN THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. I'D
SAY CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE AS OF NOW IS LOW BUT AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND WE COULD SEE THAT CONFIDENCE INCREASE AS THE HI-RES MODELS
START TO KEY IN ON THE EVENT.
COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER DAYS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH MID WEEK AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S AND 30S. THE WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE WE START TO SEE OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
FEW HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WITH POSSIBLE 25-30KTS. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THE
MAIN IMPACT.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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