424
FXUS63 KLMK 211054
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S EXPECTED.
* INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS.
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SFC BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE STATE OF KY THIS
MORNING. YOU CAN SEE THIS PER THE KY MESONET WITH THE SUBTLE WIND
CHANGES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITHIN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM. SFC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TOP
PUSH SOUTH AND STALL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING ALONG THE KY/TN
BORDER. IT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LATER ON
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL BE ANOTHER NICE YET UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS JUST A VERY LOW END POP CHANCE ALONG THE KY/TN
BORDER THANKS TO THE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.
QUIET AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LOWS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY WARM, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKE LEX AND FFT
CHALLENGING RECORD HIGHS AS HIGH WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE RUNNING 25+ DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE ARE ALSO STILL UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OR 2 OUT OF 5 FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY EVENING.
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM KANSAS TO LAKE ERIE SUNDAY
MORNING AS A SFC LOW OVER WILL BE EXITING THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HELPING TO INCREASE MOISTURE AS
WELL AS BOOST TEMPERATURES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET
WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY THE SAME TIME. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN THE AFD YESTERDAY AND NOTICED PREVIOUSLY, MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB.
AS WAS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOUR OF SUNDAY, BUT AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, THE WARM LAYER SHOULD ERODE
SOME ALLOWING FOR CELLS AND CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. OVERALL THINKING
REMAINS RELATIVELY THE SAME. INITIALLY, DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOP
IS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENT AND CONTINUE TO BE MORE TO OUR NORTH-
NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE ONGOING CAPPING. BY
EVENING, AS THE CAPPING ERODES, WE WILL STILL HAVE FAIR AMOUNT OF ML
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG, WITH THE 0-6KM SHEAR TO BE AROUND 45-50KT,
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM. THIS SET UP
LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A HAIL THREAT AND GUSTY WINDS THAN TORNADOES.
THE SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IN AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR. THE
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL COME DOWN TO PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN WE HAVE THE BEST DAYTIME
HEATING AND HOW STRONG THE STABLE LAYER WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
MONDAY - THURSDAY...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND COOLER WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE
50S AND 60S. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, AT WHICH POINT WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE UPPER WAVE
PATTERN MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. AS WE GET LATER
INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES TEND TO SUPPORT A WARM UP FOR THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE NEXT
WEEKEND. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM VARIES BETWEEN
MODELS, SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SFC BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHERN KY AND NORTHER TN THIS
MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING BACK NORTH. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SLIDING OVER THE AREA BUT IT REMAINS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
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