160
FXUS63 KLMK 221800
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
200 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) ISSUED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
* COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MILDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...
A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
LAKE HURON TO NEBRASKA WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD AND TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER LATER TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP
INCREASING OUR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. THIS WILL ADVECT IN MORE
MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 LATER TODAY AND BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS,
ESPECIALLY FOR LEXINGTON AND FRANKFORT. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE
LOW/MID 80S BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER MAIN IMPACT FOR TODAY IS THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS EVENING. STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT OUR NORTHERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES MOST OF SOUTHERN
IN AND PARTS OF NORTHERN KY. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND
APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON, LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
7.5-8 C/KM AND 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
BETWEEN 35-40KT. WHICH SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING
BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREATS REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT
AGREE WITH THE LAST FORECASTER THAT HIGHLIGHTED THAT THE HAIL THREAT
LOOKS HIGHER GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY
SUPPORTING ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ALL THIS REMAINS A CAPPED STABLE LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WARM LAYER ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
THE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE CWA, IT MOST LIKELY WILL KEEP THE
CONVECTION ELEVATED. WHILE IT ISN'T ZERO, THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT
LOOKS VERY LOW, ESPECIALLY IF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING
AND BEHIND IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMPARED TO WHERE WE
WERE THE DAY PRIOR. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT HELP TO ADVECT IN COLDER AIR. AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WE SLOWLY START TO
REBOUND ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S BUT IT
WILL BE CHILLY TO START WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. WEATHER LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BY THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WE WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES PROGRESSIVELY WARM BACK TO NEAR 80 BY THURSDAY, THE
UP AND DOWN NATURE OF SPRING WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT TO OPERATIONS. THIS EVENING, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT
SDF/LEX, AND POSSIBLY HNB/RGA. GUSTY NORTH/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS, AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE N/NW
BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT,
LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON MONDAY,
GENERALLY REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 14Z MONDAY, THOUGH HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS SCATTERS OUT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...CSG
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